每日新闻更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - Fed

昨天晚间,美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布了会议纪要。从这份记录了6月13-14日会议内容的文件中,可以看到委员会在预期的资产负债表调整时间安排上存在分歧,但对未来加息之路仍保持共识。

在我们看来,美联储主席Janet Yellen在寻求从空前的政策刺激中软退出,以此减轻对债市和发展不断放缓的经济的冲击,这可能在高估值的股市中引发担忧。Yellen将会关注通胀率,因为劳动力市场的疲软状态稍有改善,最近一次报告的失业率为4.3%,比委员会认为完全就业的4.6%还要低。到目前为止,还没有产生通胀冲击,美联储比较看重的价格压力变动在五月份为1.4%,这已经连续超过五年低于美联储设置的2%目标值。会议纪要指出“大部分委员认为最近的通胀指数疲软很大程度上反映了特质性因素”。

近五年来,美联储一直使用“短期因素”为低于目标值的通胀水平开脱,没有切实解释他们为什么不断高估低通胀率。

关于资产负债表,“多名委员倾向于在几个月内启动流程”,然而其他委员倾向于等到“今年晚些时候”评估了经济和通胀水平之后再启动。我们认为,纪要所说的“几个月”意味着一些委员认为七月是合适的时间,尽管大部分人可能不是这个观点,而“今年晚些时候”则可能是今年九月或晚些时候,这似乎是委员会更倾向的时间点。

在最近几周我们通过各种消息源得知了很多美联储委员个人的看法,结合会议纪要的内容,我们认为美联储将在九月宣布缩表,然后会再次寻找证据以便在12月再加息25个基本点。当然,一起还要看数据。

未来几个月对Janet Yellen非常重要,因为她担任全球最重要央行掌舵人的任期将于明年2月3日到期,而总统特朗普并没有表明会继续任用她还是会另寻他人。我们也和Janet一样,等着总统先生的推文。

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