每日新闻更新 - 法国和德国 The Daily Update - France and Germany

今天是法国国庆日,法国总统马克龙在庆祝活动中款待了美国总统特朗普,这也许显示了马克龙试图在国际形势和国内政策中有所作为。毫无疑问,庆典结束后,关注点将聚焦到马克龙的国内议程以及能多大程度上执行自己的政治承诺。

上周,法国总理爱德华·菲利普承诺将预算赤字削减到3%的上限,而欧盟目标和税收改革似乎仍在2018议程上:尽管预算削减有限,但预期仍会进行艰难的财产和财富税改革。然而,劳力市场的改革始终是一个关键挑战:今年第1季度的失业率为9.6%,比危机前高出2%,说明仍存在很大的改进空间。

法国劳动力市场的监控度较高:集体工资协议覆盖了大部分就业,但只有8%的工人加入了工会。另外,公司协议如果支持员工,那就只在高层协议有所差异。马克龙旨在推出比前任更彻底的改革,并限制停发薪水以及撤销临时合同。这些改革应能提高将来的就业绿,尽管备受争议并会遇到抵制。

德国处理这一问题的效果似乎更好,其失业率高于法国在2000年早期阶段的食谱,而现在远低于3.9%。经济学家Thomas Piketty认为法国在职业培训的投入较薄弱,工业专业化效果较低,复杂沉重的税收和工资负担限制了私有领域的就业发展。

有趣的是,法国和德国的生产力水平并没有什么不同。在Piketty利用经合组织的数据所做的报告中,研究了每小时产出的GDP的购买力(2015年欧元),该研究显示法国2015年与德国和美国的水平相当,且高于英国、意大利以及相同规模和经济结构的国家的水平。这意味着,法国较高的失业率派出了一些低层的新就业,但尽管Piketty进行了调整,法国的生产力预期降低,但仍然跟德国很接近。德国每份工作的平均小时数比法国低,人均产出所需的劳动力数较高,说明法国年轻人的失业率尤其高。

尽管德国的就业背景很积极,但其庞大的贸易顺差产生了很大的不平衡。德国通过工资停滞,并利用中东欧国家加入欧盟的机会来提高其贸易额,从而有效地维持了德国在欧洲一体化后的竞争力。它的境况也受到欧元的影响:作为强大的债权国,德国被锁在了相对疲软的欧元汇率上。国际货币基金组织在2016年的对外领域评估中指出,德国远期汇率与有效实际汇率(REER)被低估了10%-20%,并利用具有标准贸易弹性的经常账户倒退模式,被低估了10%-15%。但是,即使考虑到人口老龄化,德国盈余(约占GDP的8%)也是非常巨大的,尤其是对对这种规模的非石油国家而言。欧盟委员会的宏观经济不平衡流程指出,德国持续的经常账户高盈余是一个问题,解决这一顺差对欧元区其他地区进行再平衡具有重要意义。政策措施包括提高国内消费和投资。

但考虑到德国五月份的贸易顺差达220亿欧元(基于本周早些时候发布的数据),该问题似乎将在未来几月得到重点讨论,尤其同特朗普政府进行讨论。

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