每日新闻更新 - 国际货币基金组织经济发展预测 The Daily Update - IMF growth forecast

今天上午,国际货币基金组织(IMF)修改了对全球经济的发展预测,修订后的数据预测今年全球国内生产总值的增速继续保持在3.5%,2018年为3.6%。尽管IMF在今年四月份的预测报告中认为经济发展总体不会改变,但已对多个国家地区的发展预期做了调整,认为可能会有暴风雨来临。正如这份预测报告所言,“尽管短期来看,全球经济发展与风险总体保持平衡,但中期来看朝不利的方向发展”。

在IMF调整发展预期的国家中,中国是其中之一,预计2017年的发展速度为6.7%,2018年为6.4%,比早些时候的预期分别高出0.1%和0.2%。对正面新闻也再次出现谨慎态度。IMF经济顾问兼研究主任Maurice Obstfeld说:“中国今年前两个季度的发展速度非常快,这部分是由于全球整体上扬的发展势头以及亚洲贸易的高涨,但中国不断扩大的国内债务也是原因之一,而这是让我们担忧的。”日本的发展也略微高于预期,从今年早些时候的1.2%上调至1.3%。但是日本2018年的发展预期没有调整,仍保持在0.6%。

欧元区的发展预期也得到了调整,从1.7%调至1.9%,2018年略有上调,至1.7%。

IMF下调了两个国家的发展预期:英国和美国。美国今年和明年的发展预期均下调至2.1%。而今年四月份IMF对美国今年的发展预期是2.3%,2018为2.5%。Obstfeld也再提出警告。IMF之前认为特朗普政府的经济刺激行动会促进美国的发展,但现在看来,特朗普的指令会推行到何种程度却备受质疑。Obstfeld也曾提出要警惕特朗普当选后所发表的保护主义言论。

英国被IMF单列为最具有潜在担忧的国家。英国今年的发展速度从2%下调至1.7%,明年为1.5%。Obstfeld说:“我们下调了英国今年的发展预期,这是基于英国到目前为止温吞的国内经济表现。退欧对英国的影响目前仍不明朗。”

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