每日新闻更新 - 科威特和海合会国家 The Daily Update - Kuwait and GCC

过去18个月里,我们持有的海合会国家的大量主权和准主权欧元债券都表现不错,尽管该地区的经济严重依赖石油,最近的外交风波也削弱了主权信用,各政府债务水平也有所提高。这很大程度上说明大量债券的交易价格比本身信用等级所代表的价格低很多档,也说明信用虽然下降但仍很强劲,固定收益市场仍有逐利现象。

过去几个星期由于卡塔尔同沙特和其他海湾国家产生的外交风波,导致卡塔尔债券受到一定程度的销售压力,但我们认为用外交的方式处理这一事件对各方都有好处。我们仍然持有卡塔尔债券。在该外交事件的斡旋调解中,海合会创建国之一科威特发挥了重要作用,也许将关注点带到了主权投资上。

三月,科威特政府发行了价值80亿美元的欧元债券,而没有收缩其可观的资产基础和主权财富基金。科威特的债务占GDP的比重很小,预计2017年仅有26.1%,穆迪认为“科威特健康的资产负债表、非常高的财富水平和大量的油气储备能不断支持其信用等级保持在Aa2的水平。”它在制衡机制方面有很好的表现,“将推行财政和经济改革,在未来一段时间维持其信贷信用,实现经济多元化,并提高经济基础和预算收入。”

科威特的国外净资产一直很稳健,预期将继续保持下去。2017年账户盈余为GDP的5.7%,财政状况也受益于较低的财政预算平衡油价,IMF预计其2017年的财政平衡油价为49.1美元,2018年为50.4美元。虽然预期科威特在2016/2017年度的财政盈余将从2014/2015年度的29%下降至0.9%的赤字水平,但相比海合会其他成员国来说,这仍然是非常低的水平。因此,穆迪和标普分别保持对科威特Aa2和AA的评级水平不变是有道理的。5月26日,穆迪确认了这一评级,并将其经济展望从消极提升为稳定。

科威特2027年到期的国际债券票息3.5%,收益率3.17%,根据我们相当于Aa2评级的模型,其交易价格几乎低出3.4档,我们认为这很有吸引力。

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