每日新闻更新 - 来宝,没宝了The Daily Update - Not so noble

根据评级机构惠誉,亚洲最大的供应商来宝集团面临违约风险。来宝总部位于香港,业务涉及农业、农园和工业产品的采购、储存、运输和分销。上周惠誉将来宝的垃圾评级再将两档至CCC级,并声称该公司面临“重大的信用风险”,“违约有实际可能性”。

之前我们持有来宝2020年到期的债券(票息6.75%),并以$98.50的价格在2011年增加持股股,当时与美国国债的价差约为515基点,交易价格低于其信用等级2.5档,预期回报率约为11%,收益率低于7%,当时我们认为很有吸引力。我们在2014年9月以$112.15这一接近历史最高的价格平仓,获益价差约为290点。当时三大评级机构均给予该债券Baa3的评级,这也是该债券发行以来获得的最高评级。

我们从2014年中期开始出售持有的该股债券,因为我们的信用调查发现该公司的基本面已经开始崩溃,不明朗的公司账户信息说明公司情形糟糕。与此同时,该公司第二大投资者中投集团(主权财富基金)在2014年9月开始剥离其所有权,也成为清晰的卖出信号。然而,评级机构反应较慢,穆迪在2015年底下调这一垃圾债券的评级,接下来的一年下调了三档。而标普直到2016年才开始下调评级至次投资级,在2016年晚期惠誉也进行了下调。

我们关注了来宝的所有负面新闻:例如,产品价格下降导致2014年最后一季度出现大规模损失,销售额下降了15%,关于该公司会计业务因此由很多质疑。更不用说该债券的价格在2016年底下降到$42左右。之后产品价格反弹,尽管仍低于标准,但这一定程度减少了损失,五月份开始价格又下降至历史新低,约$36,价差超过5000点,惠誉的声明也没有起到作用。该债券目前的价格非常低,根据我们的计算,其回报率超过75%,收益率52%,有12档信用缓冲。然而,即使我们可以在我们的下一代债券基金中把它纳入小高收益率因子,我们也不愿意再碰它。

全球国家以及公司之间的基本面都存在极大的差异,这也是我们分别进行评估的原因。我们使用我们的专属NFA评分系统——包括相对价值模型和信用分析工具,首先清除“危险的”债券。因此我们认为我们所投资的债券都有优良的基本面,因此我们的投资组合中从未出现过债券违约。

全球次投资级信用的长期平均违约率约为4%,随着美联储政策收紧,全球经济增长放缓,垃圾债券的违约调整后的收益可能面临压力。我们认为目前高负债、低增长的经济环境对垃圾债券投资者来说很不利,这也是我们目前只持有投资级别信用的原因。

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