每日新闻更新 - 沙特阿拉伯 The Daily Update - Saudi Arabia

本周早些时候沙特政府发行了首批里亚尔伊斯兰债券,包含3支(3年期、5年期、7年期),共筹资170亿里亚尔(45亿美元)。这次国内发行获得510亿里亚尔的预购:去年沙特政府主要在传统债券领域进行国内筹资,四月份筹资在全球发行90亿美元的伊斯兰债券,因此国内对伊斯兰债券存在大量需求。

沙特阿拉伯的欧元债券表现良好,尽管与卡塔尔的外交风波仍未平息,三月底惠誉将其评级从AA-下调至A+。沙特阿拉伯2046年到期的债券从今年初已经上升了约6点,价差收紧了约20bps至147bps。虽然从地域政治的角度看,这次外交风波是负面的,但是影响仅限于同卡塔尔的金融关系中。涉及到伊朗的任何外交升级都会对经济产生负面影响,但我们认为通过外交方式进行解决对各方都有益,尽管这样更耗时。美国和科威特正在调解这一事件。

沙特阿拉伯面临的另一个关键挑战是其收入严重依靠石油。穆迪指出,2011-2014年间沙特的石油收入占政府收入的90%,“财政支出从2011-2013年盈余10.5%,转变成2014年赤字2.3%,2015年赤字水平加大到14.8%。”然而,考虑到沙特阿拉伯已经在石油高价期间积累了大规模的储备缓冲,它有能力在外交方案出台前支撑一段时间的赤字。另外,2014年政府债务占GDP的1.6%,因此政府有能力利用债务市场。2016年底,政府债务占GDP13.2%,这仍是非常低的水平。

从中期来看,核心问题在于沙特阿拉伯如何有效执行其2030年国家愿景,其中的关键目标是实现经济多元化,改变依靠石油的局面,提高私有领域的就业。2020年国家改革计划和2020年财政平衡计划正朝着这一整体愿景实现。已经取得了一些成绩:穆迪指出,官方数据显示沙特在2016年的财政赤字占GDP的12.8%,这得益于开支减少了15.6%,资本消费也有所下降。政府在2017年的赤字目标是占GDP的7.7%,穆迪预测将接近10.7%。沙特阿拉伯已经实施了一些增税政策(例如对外籍员工和货物税),提高了公用税收,并计划在2018年同其他海合会国家一道执行增值税。由于取消削减工资,恢复奖金津贴,能源价格进一步提高,导致财政紧缩也日间式微。然而,如果财政赤字要实现2020年预算平衡目标,还有很多事情可做,尤其考虑到2017年第1季度GDP增长率同比下降了0.5%。

IMF在最近的工作报告《2014-2016年出口商石油价格下降的影响》中总结认为,“也许有些让人吃惊,石油依赖性并不是影响震动的决定因素。从很大程度上说,石油价格对经济发展的冲击跟进入这场冲击的经济基本面相关。我们的调查结果显示,能更好地支撑这次危机的国家,通常有更强劲的财政表现、更高的外汇流行性缓冲、更多元的出口基础,价格长期保持稳定,外汇机制更加灵活。在出口国家中,这些因素超出了任何来自石油进口产生的影响,这次冲击的影响跟石油出口的规模并不相关,跟石油在财政收入以及经济活动中的比重也不相关。”

因此,虽然沙特阿拉伯没有灵活的汇率来吸收来自诸如俄罗斯的冲击,它的缓冲能力仍然非常客观的。对我们而言,NFA是我们投资流程的中心原则,帮助我们利用信用市场的不足,信用市场通常受对事件的条件反射的影响。另外,通过锁定价格低于多个信用等级的等级,市场可能已经消化了任何负面新闻/降级风险。

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