每日新闻更新 - 温和十年的英国 The Daily Update - UK's decade of dovishness

今天晚些时候美联储会议纪要将公布,在这之前先关注一下正在静悄悄地“庆祝”经历了十年温和政策的英格兰银行。感觉没有这么久,但今天的确距英国上次加息已有10年。在这个十年之前的12个月里(2006-2007年),出现5次利率峰值并在2007年7月5日达到5.75%,没过多久美国次贷危机污染了全球市场,英格兰银行3次降息,最后暂时停在5%,很快国际金融危机爆发,世界各地的利率集体跳水。经过6次跌跌撞撞的降息,英国的基准利率最终定在微弱的0.5%。在今后的大约7年里,市场一直预测这种超低的利率应该逐步淘汰。但在去年八月的退欧公投后,英格兰银行再次降息至0.25%,过去一年一直保持这一比十年前低23倍的利率。

随着低利率时代的跨度超出预期,而各国仍在努力刺激经济增长,一些投资者对十年来首次加息将引发的反应持谨慎态度。但是,如果美联储案例分析值得参考的话,会发现市场越来越关注利率的长期轨迹,而没有对可能发生的基准利率翻倍或者名义利率增长25个基本点而不安。英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)投票同意加息的比率为3-5,目前通胀率为2.9%,这样看来很有可能实现投票结果的反转。英格兰银行首席经济学家Andy Haldane的立场越来越鹰派;上周英格兰银行行长Mark Carney说:“很有必要取消一些货币刺激政策。”Carney只需联手Forbes、McCafferty和Saunders就足以执行加息决定。

当然,让人担忧的是疲软的经济数据。第1季度的GDP增长速度仅为0.2%,平均盈利增长率仅为十年前的一半。雪上加霜的是退欧以及其他很多衰退信号带来的不确定性,例如当下服务领域发展缓慢、汽车销售疲软。面临持续放缓的经济,MPC可能冰冻利息轨迹,以此观察消费者开支如何应对利率提高、通胀率加大和工资增长放缓的困境

解释了所有这些现实,我们认为一些债券市场仍存在吸引人的价值。这些债券不是名不副实的“高收益”领域——面对轻微加息、信用状况收紧的情况依然存在高风险。不是“低收益率”和“负回报率”的领域——缺少价差缓冲让它们对哪怕很小的冲击也显得相对更脆弱。相比之下,多元化高评级信用投资组合更能带来价值。这些高评级债券来自债权国,这些债权国无需过度加大债务比,债券收益率约是4%,按照我们关注低估债券的相对价值投资流程来看,这种债券拥有收益的可能。

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