每日新闻更新 - 英国储蓄率 The Daily Update - What savings

今天是第2季度最后一天,英国国家统计局针对英国经济趋势、报表和流动性发布了2017年第1季度系列数据。正如预料,数据让人很失望。甚至关于英国退欧不确定性产生的后果,报告也显示大量不利的经济趋势可能进一步打击市场信心。

首先,经常账户赤字为169亿英镑,比上季度增加了48亿英镑。这主要由于贸易赤字扩大——商品贸易赤字扩大和服务贸易顺差缩小导致。这并不符合政府对退欧和英镑贬值后的效果预期。根据英国国家统计局,疲软的贸易表现让GDP的增长率减少了0.8%。

第二,英国家庭储蓄率下降到只有1.7%,这是自1963年近54年来的最低水平。这通常被视为一种正面信号,因为从理论上来说低储蓄率是对未来充满信心的表现——人们当下的花费增加,并预期未来的收入可满足未来的需求。然而,在这个案例中,似乎更多的是因为储蓄能力不断受到抑制。这不仅是最低记录水平,而且也是下滑最严重的季度之一(上个季度的储蓄率是3.3%,去年第1季度的储蓄率是6.1%)。

然而,该系列数据会出现大幅修改,对最近数据没有担忧的所有人几乎肯定都预期该数据会提高。另外,仔细研读细分数据会发现,很大一部分储蓄减少是由于税收增加,财产收入减少,这两者跟更广泛的家庭支出并没有切实的相关性。更低的实际工资也是导致储蓄下滑的又一主要原因,这更让人担忧。英国国家统计局认为家庭消费率从2016年第4季度的0.7%下降到0.4%,对消费和储蓄都有影响。总的来说,这意味着季度经济增长只有0.2%(上季度的经济增长率为0.2%)。

尽管英国经济在退欧程序启动后保持着相对繁荣的状态,但如此低的储蓄率(较之9%的历史平均水平)让人质疑经济发展的可持续性,将可能产生震荡,甚至更剧烈的下滑。如果通过降低消费来补偿较低的实际工资,储蓄更多现有乐观情绪衰退,经济发展对英国造成双重打击。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.