每日新闻更新 - 世界人口统计 The Daily Update - World demographics

根据联合国最近发布的人口统计预测,到2100年世界人口将达到112亿,虽然这个数字与两年前公布的大致没有变化,但仍然很让人震惊。仅未来十年内,世界人口将以惊人的速度老龄化,65岁以上的人口数量将增加38%,也就是超过2.5亿。我们目前每7.5位工作者供养1位退休人员,而十年后将变成每6位工作者供养1位退休人员。

在该报告中,联合国预测尽管发达市场的人口每年将缩减0.3%,但由于新兴市场的出生率较高,因此全球人口将以0.5%的速度增长。这相当于未来十年发达市场将减少2500万工作人员,而新兴市场将增加5亿工作者。令人惊讶的是,印度每月大约增加100万新的求职者,这种形势将不断持续下去,而印度经济目前无法提供充分的就业来吸收这些求职需求。

很显然,出生率的鲜明对比将对每个经济体产生非常巨大的压力差异。印度和非洲等新兴市场国家面临就业压力,而发达市场国家则将接受人口老龄化带来的医疗和养老金挑战。

高出生率将带来压力,而低出生率也会产生让人恐慌的统计数据。到2050年,48个国家的人口数量将少于今天的规模,我们的国外净资产分析也显示,很多这些人口下降的国家将严重负债。这将对这些国家的财政产生巨大的压力,唯一可行的方式是违约或者大力进行货币调整。我们已经关注人口变动有一段时间了,并且在一年前推出下一代全球债券基金(Next Generation Global Bond Fund)。

当然,至少移民可以减缓发达市场和新兴市场将来可能遇到的一些问题。如果处于工龄阶段的人口移民到出生率下降的国家地区,将减缓发达市场的压力,同时完成就业,并提高发达市场国家的工作人员与退休人员的比例。然而,正如英国退欧投票所展示的,移民在政治上很不受欢迎。牛津大学移民观察站的一份研究突出证实了这一点,文章指出,77%的英国人口要么希望移民“大幅减少”,要么希望“减少一些”。另外,我们也看到,去年移民危机席卷欧洲的时候,欧盟尤其是德国总理默克尔,备受煎熬。无论如何,英国财政部预测到2060年达到100岁的英国退休人员数量将超过100万,目前这个数字是1.5万。将不得不做出一些艰难的决策。

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