每日新闻更新 - 耶伦/伊利诺斯州 The Daily Update - Yellen / Illinois

昨天美联储主席耶伦出席了国会的一场会议,这可能是她最后几次参加国会会议。她承认美国经济继续发展(尽管速度缓慢),就业增加,家庭消费提高,但认为目前联邦利率预期可能会降低,“因为按照历史标准,目前中性利率非常低,联邦基金利率可能不需要进一步提高来获得中立政策立场”。耶伦也对通胀目标发表了意见:“我认为通胀疲软体现了暂时因素,通胀一直低于我们的目标值2%,未来可能有更多变数。关于通胀何时以及如何应对缩表,还面临不确定性。”当回答关于美联储缩表计划时,她说“有可能在今年启动”。

耶伦的这番温和言论打击了市场对加息的预期。截止本文发稿,市场认为今年九月加息的可能是10%,今年出现峰值的可能不到44%。的确,要想知道峰值率是否超过50%需要等到2018年3月。

昨天,美国伊利诺斯州差点成为美国第一个被标准普尔(实际上是三大评级机构)降级为垃圾等级的州。伊利诺斯州上周通过预算计划,议员同意将个人所得税提高32%,并开始支付150亿美元的未付账单,这才勉强避免了被降级。该预算允许伊利诺斯州最高发行60亿美元债券,以此支付部分账单。经过两年的僵持才最终通过了该预算。标普认为该州已经降低了“流动性危机”风险,保持了该州评级在垃圾等级之上一档的水平。标普表示该收在未来一年内降级的概率已“大大降低”,该预算“减少了显示其财务运营特征的短期不确定性”。

该预算中,预计将有366亿美元用于财政支出,财政收入将是363亿美元,这样仍有约3亿美元的缺口,还有150亿美元的未付账单!这些数据尽管很庞大,但跟养老金相比就相形见绌了。根据穆迪的报告,伊利诺斯州需要支付退休工人的养老金超过2500亿美元。

按照评级机构的标准,伊利诺斯州并没有走出困境。惠誉在二月份下调了该州的评级至垃圾等级以上两档,穆迪目前正在审核其信用等级。伊利诺斯州怎么会沦落到这种地步?穆迪资深评机官Ted Hampton说:“庞大的养老金负担是由于长久以来一直推迟做出艰难的决定,所有这些问题都是治理和管理上的不足”。

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