每日新闻更新 - 来自全球金融危机的10年风险 The Daily Update - Persistent Risks 10 Years On From The GFC

10年前的今天,美国次贷市场正处于不确定性和挥之不去的无知当中,法国巴黎银行封锁了三家对冲基金的撤离,“美国证券市场确定领域的流动性蒸发,这使得无法对一些资产进行公平估价,无论它们是何种品质或信用评级”。大体来说,我们不知道这些资产的价值是多少,如果有的话。很多人认为这一行动是击溃市场信心的最后一根稻草,它阻止了同业拆借,将不良次贷资产迅速大规模显化。2007年8月9日,为应对欧元市场的担忧,欧洲央行启动了所谓的“微调”操作,向金融系统注资950亿欧元(第二天注资610亿欧元,隔天注资3580亿欧元,如此不断)。世界各国央行采取的措施明显缓解了危机的爆发,但不足以停止滚雪球效应,六个星期内人们在英国北岩银行(Northern Rock)外扎营等待提款,害怕自己的储蓄泡汤。接下来的故事大家都知道了,也许那不是件坏事。

英国前财政大臣Lord Darling当时入职两月后即遭到了法国巴黎银行这一招,今天他对BBC说,考虑到目前不断增长的高水平消费债务以及经济发展对高水平消费支出和低利率的依赖,要警惕“巨大的不确定性”和各种“警钟”。再加上退欧带来的风险,英国面临着特别的担忧。BBC报道称:“2007年8月9日,我们感受到了大规模金融地震的第一次震颤,而我们今天还在应对它的余震,无论国家、地方还是个人,都是如此。”Lord Darling承认监管机构现在“更敏锐、更倾向于干涉”,银行资金更健康。但那些没有发现的风险仍然存在,“更大的危险是自满”,就像10年前一样,一旦暴露就会让市场进入数年的不理性。所以,市场哪些领域存在过度的自满情绪,即使数据显示我们已经远背离了历史常态和可持续性水平?

当然,需要在全球实行去杠杆,以此来调整前数十年来债权国与债务国形成的巨大不平衡,调整富裕国家和不那么富裕的国家之间日益显著的不平等,解决由此产生的潜在社会结果,面临越来越低的收益率发行的风险越来越大的债务,同时面临日益增长的利率和潜在收紧的贷款形势,另外还有“烈焰与怒火”的风险以及其他狂妄的事情。

在今天一份公报中,欧盟肯定了他们在这次危机中的行动以及持续的恢复状态,“果断的行动产生了效果,今天欧盟经济已经连续第五年在扩展,失业率达到2008年以来的最低水平,银行更加强健,投资增加,国家财政得到改善。最近的经济发展很鼓舞人心,但要克服危机带来的后果还有很多问题仍需解决。”的确,还需要像危机初期应对那样迅速地采取很多行动,过去10年欧洲和美国出现了大量政治性的拖沓,有的也许甚至回到了原状。

考虑到改善全球金融系统的大手笔但却拖延了的措施,经济虽然有所发展,但仍远没有趋向最近的历史趋势线。面对这种状况以及已经非常低的利率,如果发生任何冲击都将更难以解决。比如美国消费者信用卡债务已经达到了历史最高。工资和银行几乎没有任何收入增长,这会更热衷于为消费信用打开绿色通道。美国家庭债务已经增加到12.73万亿美元,超过了2008年的12.68万亿美元的峰值,而这其中有1万亿是信用卡负债。这也只能走这么远了,除非经济发展提升,通过实际工资增加消费支出——经济发展的主要驱动力之一,否则市场乐观情绪会受到打击。考虑到持续的疲软脆弱,我们会继续从高评级的债务中寻找机会,这些债务将提供具有吸引力的收益,并能更好地抵御风险。

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