每日新闻更新 - 文在寅上任100天 The Daily Update - Moon’s 100 Days

朝鲜不断展示自己的力量,上任100天的韩国总统文在寅也一直在摩拳擦掌。尽管遭到了明显的干扰,文在寅政府已经执行了一些选举承诺,包括转向“收入导向的经济”——通过引入五年经济政策蓝图来解决收入不平等问题,鼓励创造就业机会。同时本届政府的补充性预算(11.03万亿韩元)获得批准,并推出政策解决房地产行业的投机活动(包括收紧按揭政策),还提出了税收修改提议。

文在寅政府议程的首要任务之一是增加高收入个人和大型企业集团的税收,促进小型企业和公共领域的发展。如果这些提议获得议会通过(总统所在政党处于少数席位),这将是韩国自1991年以来首次增加企业税。市场对这则消息的反应并不像总统所在“左倾”政党预测的那样。文在寅当选韩国总统后,KOSPI指数持续保持历史高度,但税改提议宣布后,该指数下降了1.60%,尽管年初至今仍保持在26%以上。然而,韩元对美元始终保持相对稳定。

 根据我们最近的计算,韩国今年的国外净资产额(NFA)已经从4星升级至5星,占GDP的比重超过25%。由于我们对NFA的投资等级战略标准是3星,因此韩国位于我们的投资范畴,我们之前持有该国的高收益债券。然而,正如大部分读者多见,我们最近没有持有该国的任何债券,因为根据我们的专有价值模型,韩国大部分债券的交易相对吃紧,剩下的则是价格偏高。一个很好的例子就是2044年到期、利率为4.125%的主权债券,其收益率为3%,对美国国债的价差为25点,而同等评级、久期约17年的债券同美国国债的价差为55点,这说明韩国这支债券的价格比其评级高出3.5档。卡塔尔主权债券2046s评级为Aa2,利率为4.625%,价差为155,信用缓冲超过5档。

随着朝鲜半岛的地缘政治活动的不断发展,最近韩国一些债券价格开始下降,这对我们来说更有吸引力,尤其是Aa2评级的债券。我们将继续关注该地区的政治形势、对债券有利的因素,以及足以补偿任何潜在缝线的充分价差。

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