每日新闻更新 - 北美自由贸易协定2.0……谈判开始 The Daily Update - NAFTA 2.0…let the negotiations begin

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)谈判将于明天在华盛顿举行,届时来自美国、加拿大和墨西哥的代表将讨论如下事宜:缩小美国对墨西哥的贸易赤字,加拿大希望保留第19章规定的争议仲裁专家组,“原产地原则”,“购买美国货”,气候对谈,数字革命……一些固执己见的高知名度人物(例如Wilbur Ross和Bob Lighthizer)将促使加拿大和墨西哥增加从美国的进口。Lighthizer曾在6月份说,他希望在今年底完成贸易谈判,很多人对此很乐观,而Ross期望在2018年初达成共识。很多市场评论员认为谈判得到2018年底或者2019年初才能达成一致。这次会议拉开了提议的七场会议的序幕。

看上去加拿大和墨西哥都不准备受美国的霸凌,他们也安排了一些强硬派谈判人员为自己争取利益。昨天,加拿大外交部长Chrystia Freeland说加拿大不会只是接受任意条款,她表示希望能保留目前协议中的一些积极点,认为谈判应关注协议的现代化推进,特别是强化劳动力市场和环境保护。尽管前方的路仍然很艰巨,但她“对最终结果很乐观”。

惠誉关于此次谈判对墨西哥经济的影响的担忧似乎得到了缓解,将墨西哥的展望评级从负面调整为稳定(BBB+),并声明“NAFTA重新谈判对墨西哥经济的破坏风险近来已经缓和,认为最终的协议不会严重阻碍墨西哥进入美国市场。”惠誉也认为尽管目前的不确定性会影响墨西哥的经济,但“重新谈判可能带来中期机遇”。然而,没有人能确定这场谈判会发展成什么样子,墨西哥经济一直灵活应对持续低迷的石油价格以及美国的保护主义措施,“当局表现出应对挑战的能力”。标普也于上月将墨西哥的展望从消极调整为稳定(BBB+),认为墨西哥政府“及时应对近期的消极冲击,削弱了最近快速增长的债务累积速度,稳定了政府的债务负担”。

然而,各方之间的初期谈判必然会受到密切关注,要达成任何综合性协议都需要走很长一段路。不过最近的贸易言辞风格有所改变,之前特朗普要有效撕毁沿用了23年的NAFTA协议并对墨西哥和加拿大增加关税,现在这些言辞已有所克制,并转为正式的讨论。三个国家的代表似乎对这些讨论都持有开放性态度,但也很谨慎地意识到他们将会受到考验。美国副总统Pence说NAFTA 2.0谈判可以实现三方共赢。

汽车是NAFTA协议中另一个有争议的领域,我们最后就来说说美国汽车制造商特斯拉发行的8年期18亿美元的债券。穆迪和标普将该债券分别评为B3和B-级,价差为320bps,收益率为5.3%。随着Tesla Model 3(大约预定了44.5万辆车)引发的狂潮,难怪对该债券有如此高的需求,该债券首次发行为15亿美元。然而,但我们不会将该债券纳入我们的高评级投资组合,因为我们认为这支2025年到期利率为5.3%的债券价格比其评级高出3档,相似等级的垃圾债券价差为275bps。我们宁愿坚持收益率稳定在4%的单A级投资组合。

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