每日新闻更新 - 亚马逊 The Daily Update - Amazon’s bumper deal

上周,Amazon.com Inc在市场发行了分期债券,据称融资资金将用于支付137亿美元的Whole Foods Market Inc收购。此次发行共融资480亿美元(超额3倍),仅比白俄罗斯的名义GDP略低。对该债券的巨大需求并不让市场感到奇怪,毕竟亚马逊是一个家喻户晓的品牌,估价是5年前的5倍,标普指数几乎翻倍。虽然市场乐于把钱借给这家电子商务巨头,但它并没有纳入我们的投资组合,因为其相对吸引力存在风险。

穆迪对亚马逊的评级为Baa1,标普对其评级为AA-。穆迪将亚马逊的展望评级从稳定上调为积极,穆迪副总裁Charlie O’Shea说,“将亚马逊的展望调为积极,我们认为虽然亚马逊债务增加,但是收购全食让它在众多领域拥有了立即可用的信用。”O’Shea还指出,该收购扩大了亚马逊的规模,让它在一直努力发展的领域有了重要的实体门店。然而,穆迪的报告也指出,该评级也认为“其战略和金融政策缺乏透明性,加之由于众多发展计划的投资和融资水平不一,以及来自实体零售商在电商领域日益激烈的竞争,导致其营业利润存在巨大的潜在波动性。”

按照相对价值来衡量,这支债券的30年和40年期最有吸引力。2047年到期利率为4.05%的债券对美国国债的价差为125bps,目前的交易价差为130bps,收益率约为4%。按照该债券的最佳评级,也就是AA-,其预期回报率为9.1%,约有2.8档信用缓冲(如果按照最差评级,则有1.8档缓冲)。将其与我们持有的2043年到期利率为4.875%的微软债券相比,后者的久期更短(微软为15.5年,亚马逊为17.2年),评级更高(Aaa级)。从相对价值的角度来看,我们目前更倾向于微软债券,其预期回报率和收益率分别为15%,交易价格比其评级低约5.4档。

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