每日新闻更新 - 巴林 The Daily Update - Bahrain

最近,穆迪将巴林的长期国外债券的信用评级骤降6档,从2013年的Baa1降至B1(消极)。穆迪认为“巴林政府债务负担和债务负担能力指标将在未来两到三年内大幅恶化”。巴林一直是海合会成员国,受到油价下滑的严重影响,因为它不但是财政收支平衡油价最高的国家之一(2017-2018年每桶油价约100美元),而且财政缓冲更为薄弱。

由于巴林第纳尔与美元挂钩,外部平衡调整的负担就落到了财政政策上。然而,面对政府收入减少的局面,补贴和消费支出缩减程度一直都很有限。因此,巴林的财政赤字一直保持两位数,侵蚀着它的财政缓冲,并迅速抬高政府债务水平。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测巴林在2017年的财政赤字将占GDP的12.2%,较去年的17.8%略有下降,并认为巴林应为解决这一问题作出更大努力。另外,从2015年起巴林就一直存在经常账户赤字,2016年达到GDP的4.6%。一直以来,发行国债是为赤字融资的主要途径。穆迪预测2017年巴林政府债务占GDP的比重将达到84.3%,高于2016年的73.3%,预计2018年将提升至91.7%。政府总债务一直在恶化,2014年时仅占GDP的44.4%。增加国外债券的发行也加重了巴林对外脆弱性。

根据IMF的数据,巴林中央银行的外汇总储备为25万亿美元,仅相当于1.4个月的进口金额覆盖水准,这相较于2014年60万亿的储备,显然下跌太大。巴林主权财富基金Mumtalakat Holding Company(玛姆塔拉卡特控股公司)在2015年底的资产额约占GDP的20%,但巴林的净国际投资比重(根据穆迪数据,一个国家国外资产的市场价值与其债务占GDP的比重之间的差异)从2015年的79.2%下降到2017年的20.4%。幸运的是,巴林通过海合会发展基金得到沙特的大力支持,也从联合拥有的Abu Sa’afa油田中获得收入。沙特在2011年阿拉伯之春内乱期间应巴林政府要求对巴林提供军事支持。因此,一旦出现任何困难,巴林很可能继续得到来自海合会的支持。

标普和惠誉对巴林长期外币的评级分别为BB-和BB+,展望为消极,也都指出巴林必须采取纠正性措施解决财政赤字问题。惠誉认为,“未能缩减财政赤字,没能制定清晰的政策稳定政府债务占GDP的比重,以及严重恶化的国内安全环境”是导致产生消极评级的主要因素。标普认为,“消极展望体现了我们的观点:巴林净外部资产可能缩减到我们认为不足以环节油价波动对巴林产生的影响,已经很低的外汇储备可能进一步减少”。

我们认为,巴林基本面迅速恶化,从投资等级降为次级投资等级,这让它不适合投资。即使我们有机会持有次级投资等级的债券,目前巴林也没有吸引力。例如,根据我们的模型,巴林于2044年到期利率为6%的债券,评级为BB-,交易价格接近公允价值。

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