每日新闻更新 - 智利 The Daily Update - Chile

近日,惠誉将智利共和国的长期外汇评级下调一档,从A+降至A,展望评级从稳定降为消极。这次降级体现了“经济疲软延续时间过长和较低的铜价,导致巴西主权资产负债表持续恶化”。惠誉指出,在A级同档国家中,巴西的人均收入趋势走低,政府债务占GDP的比重从A+级低水平提升至A级中值水平。

惠誉对智利的观点是所有评级机构中最悲观的:穆迪对智利的评级仍然保持在Aa3(稳定),标普在七月份将其长期外汇评级下调一档至A+(稳定)。标普指出,“经济发展疲软态势延长,妨碍了智利的财政收入,导致政府债务负担,削弱了该国的宏观经济表现。”标普也认同穆迪对智利政府债务占GDP比重的观点:2017年为25%,2018年为27%,大幅低于大部分主权评级为Aa级的国家水平——中值38%。

的确,智利的债务水平已经提高,但是智利的经常账户赤字很小(2016年占GDP的1.4%),预计智利政府在2017年的财政赤字为GDP的3.2%,去年这个数字是2.2%。然而,这需要考虑到智利也有资产缓冲(经济和社会稳定基金、养老储备基金、教育基金和其他财富资产),据标普预测,这些资产缓冲的总额在2016年底大约有28.8万亿美元(占GDP的11.8%)。因此,适应于政府资产的智利净债务看上去非常强健:标普预测在2017年占GDP的11%。

无论如何,考虑到智利的经济疲软状态,在今年晚些时候的总统大选前,智利的反危机财政政策(从2001年起智利就制定了针对经济周期的平衡预算)受到关注也就不足为奇了。在本次选举中,来自反对党Chile Vamos的前总统Sebastian Piñera(任职:2010-2014)支持率领先,他认为需要调整财政赤字,以此提振经济信心、促进投资。虽然反危机财政政策得到支持,但预测是基于过度乐观的经济发展和铜价,这意味着智利的债务和赤字比预期的要严重。

惠誉的降级也影响了准主权信用的评级,例如由智利政府100%拥有的铜矿企业Codelco,其评级从A+降至A,展望从稳定降至消极。标普对Codelco基于长期外汇的评级为A+(稳定),惠誉的评级为A3(消极)。考虑到智利对该企业的支持以及预期将持续,标普把对Codelco的最终评级与智利主权评级保持了一致。

截至本文发稿,Codelco的债券,例如2036年到期利率为6.15%的一支以及2025年到期利率为4.5%的一支,自上周以来交易价格略有上升。惠誉在去年年底将智利和Codelco的展望评为消极,因此市场很有可能已经考虑了各种消极的降级新闻,但也许还没有收集关于强劲铜价有关的新闻:例如,Codelco于2025年到期利率为4.5%的债券年初至今已经上升了5点;而铜价仍然保持快速增长,截至本文发稿年初至今已增长近18%。我们仍然认为Codelco具有价值:根据我们的评估模型以及按照A级评级标准,Codelco于2036年到期利率为6.15%的债券交易价格比其等级低三档,收益率为4.33%。

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