每日新闻更新 - 中国的开放市场经济 The Daily Update - China’s opening market economy

在最近召开的金融经济工作中央会议上,中国国家主席习近平呼吁改善跨国公司的投资和市场环境,进一步开放市场。他认为中国应“创造稳定、公平、透明和可预测的商业环境,加快建设开放型经济,促进中国经济的可持续健康发展。”近来外国直接投资净资金下滑,促使中国进一步采取措施加大对外资的吸引力。李克强总理说:“国外资本的流入对中国保持相对较快的发展速度至关重要。我们的工业整体处于全球价值链的下游位置。我们必须释放强烈信号来欢迎国外投资。”

在过去40年里,中国在战略上大力实行经济开放,现在正处于“十三五”计划中期阶段,按该计划,中国到2020年将实现市场的完全开放。有人可能认为这太过于有野心,实际上,很多造市者的确认为中国要在这五年内完全实现市场开放面临很大的挑战,尤其同期正是中国作为全球第二大经济体的经济转型期。然而,这次中央小组会议属于高层会议,因此我们相信如果习近平认为这个目标不可能实现,那么他也不会在会上再次强调这个目标,而最近中国的经济数据也特别有力。全球经济上半年的发展速度为6.9%,这与十三五规划的6.5%-7%的经济目标一致。另外,采购经理人指数(PMI)一直保持积极稳定,按照目前的经济刺激,经济发展势头可以保持到今年年末。

现在中国经济发展“仅有6.9%的同比增长水平”,几年前还是两位数字,这样的对比很容易对中国的发展展望得出消极预期。然而,中国的发展数字仅是经济扩展的指数之一,特别是随着中国继续进行经济改革,从工业导向型向消费导向型的可持续发展模式转变。最近的去杠杆和房产收紧政策让悲观主义者很担忧,然而,房产和土地领域仍然有可持续性需求,去杠杆只会对长期形成积极影响。短期经济影响也并不像一些人担忧的或者希望的那样。

例如,稳定的货币以及增加的工业领域利润已经为政策制定者创造了充分的空间来进一步推动金融领域改革,其中包括对公共债务(即地方政府和国有企业)进行调查。中国也有巨大的储蓄。根据IMF的数据,中国今年全国的储蓄额约占GDP的45%,这又是一个债务缓冲。中国还有约3万亿美元的庞大外汇储备,这是不容低估的资本,可以让中国人民银行游刃有余地维持货币稳定,应对资本大量外流的问题。另一个积极因素是穆迪将中国银行的评级提升为稳定,并指出“我们预期不良贷款率将相对稳定地保持在目前水平。中国政府采取了更加协调的政策措施来控制影子银行,这有助于环节银行资产风险,解决金融系统的一些重要不平衡。”

是的,中国目前面临实现经济完全开放的巨大任务,特别是在透明度和可预测性方面的改革,然而,这并不意味着这个目标不可实现。所有政策制定者已经采取了必要措施来启动经济改革,实现经济开放,很显然,这已经创造了充分的缓冲来应对短期放缓的经济发展。同其他金砖国家经济体相比,中国经济也处于更加强劲的位置。但是,要在未来两年半的时间里实现完全开放的市场经济,这个时间上似乎远远不够。

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