每日新闻更新 - 欧元区经济增长提振 The Daily Update - Eurozone growth picks up

昨天欧元对美元的汇率超过1:1.2000,但今天又跌回至近期常态,约1:1.195。尽管这较之对2017年的平价预期仍有差距,但已经比年初的1:1.05有所提升。之前相当一部分的预期是考虑到特朗普改革会对提振美国经济,至少在大选季在欧元区又多了一块政治多米诺骨牌。但由于这些预期基本落空,美元疲软,欧元强健。

这些表现也体现在两个地区的发展中。穆迪下调了美国展望评级,上调了欧元区的展望。穆迪的《全球宏观经济展望》预测今年和2018年德国的经济发展速度为2.2%和2%,法国为1.6%,甚至意大利也是可观的1.3%(这都高于先前预期,之前分别为1.6%、1.3%、1.4%、0.8%和1%),而对美国在2017年的发展预期为2.2%,2018年为2.3%(之前是2.4%和2.5%)。

总体而言,这意味着今年欧元区的GDP增长预期为2.2%,明年为1.9%,均提升了0.3个百分点,而同期全球经济增长预期超过3%,高于2016年的2.6%。因此,尽管很多地区表现不佳(倒不如说是之前过于乐观),全球经济在2017年上半年保持稳定发展势头,欧元区等存在短期和中期担忧的经济体的发展将继续高于潜在水平。但长期基本面会有多少实际不同呢?

超越未来几年以及高出潜在水平的欧元区发展,放眼更远可以发现内在固有的不可持续性,同事人口以及个人和国家信用存在严重不平衡,成为持续影响众多发达经济体发展的逆风阻力。尽管这些修订后的发展数字很漂亮,但对一些欧元区国家而言,仍然只是从债务大山中挖了一个小角而已:过去一代人累积的债务被忽略,并在过去十年不断接受救助。全国范围的去杠杆仍然没有踪影,欧洲货币、债务和股票的反弹仍在继续,欧元区经济信心达到了危机前的水平。所有这些导致欧洲在普遍寻找那些从信用和净对外资产的角度能带来相对价值和足够强健的基本面的投资,这就像欧洲政客支持英国退欧的立场一样常见。

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