每日新闻更新 - 美联储,特朗普 The Daily Update - Fed UST Trump

昨天晚间美联储公布了7月26日的会议纪要,市场认为该纪要释放出温和信号,因为美联储议员对通胀前景表现出担忧。纪要指出,尽管很多议员认为最近通胀水平下滑体现了特质性因素,但也有很多议员认为通胀持续低于目标值2%的时间可能超出预期。一些议员强调还需要再耐心些,而也有人担心劳动力市场已经达到充分就业状态,继续拖延下去会“增加金融稳定风险”。关于缩表计划,有几个投票人想在当时会上宣布一份计划,但大部分更希望到下次会议再做决定。

大体上,纪要发布后市场认为12月加息的可能大约在40%,预期今年9月份会宣布缩表计划,并在之后几个月执行。

我们基本同意关于资产负债表以及12月可能加息的观点,但不太认同市场认为2018年的加息预期,因为我们认为利率将可能低于共识预期,而且可能已经达到峰值,缩表也将进一步阻碍经济发展,而某些经济领域已经表现疲软。

昨天的另一大新闻是特朗普总统解散了美国制造业理事会以及战略和政策理事会。两个理事会均有特朗普创建,成员由美国大型企业CEO组成。但加上昨天3位辞职的,三天来一共有五位理事辞职,为避免仅剩的八位继续辞职,特朗普解散了理事会。

我们来看看美国国债市场,回顾特朗普当选前的状况,比如当选日2016年10月31日的情况,长期债券交易价差为125点。特朗普当选曾引起长期利率的猛增,因为担心上万亿美元的基础设施指出以及大幅度削减企业税,这导致债券交易价差14点。现在的债券交易价差比当选日低6点。这似乎同我们的观点矛盾,因为即使意识到本届政府正在努力推动选举承诺,相对而言,美国长期国债仍然是最便宜的资产之一,其收益率约为2.81%。而同期的墨西哥石油公司Pemex长期债券价差也高出5点。

就像中国俗语说的,没有爬不过的墙,对不起特朗普总统,我无法抗拒。

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