每日新闻更新 - 亚马逊正在扼杀通货膨胀 The Daily Update - Inflation killing Amazon

当美联储主席耶伦和她的同事在会议上讨论通货膨胀,除了石油、健康和住房之外,另一个话题就是亚马逊。正如经济学家兼亚德尼研究中心总裁Ed Yardeni所言,亚马逊打价格战、击溃对手,“正在击垮大量企业,在这个过程中,它也可能杀死通货膨胀。亚马逊像中国人一样杀死了就业机会,它通过快速、低成本地找到任何持有手机的人,为通货膨胀设定了上限。”现在亚马逊收购了全食超市,亚马逊首席执行官贝索斯可能扩大其控制范围。目前亚马逊在食品领域占美国消费者指数的15%,仅比交通略低。

Gluskin Sheff公司的高级经济学家和战略家David Rosenberg说:“现在亚马逊正在重塑整个食品零售业,它的通货紧缩水平非常高,而我们在说的是价值8000亿美元的杂货品市场。”Sheff公司认为即将发生一场历史性的超级市场战争。亚马逊大规模引入自动化,加上其无可匹敌的规模,这意味着未来几年将面临巨大的价格压力。这并不是说像沃尔玛这样的企业会让亚马逊这样一直搞下去。今年早些时候,沃尔玛开始对数千件产品进行打折,消费者既可以在线购买,也可以到店内挑选,现在折扣产品已经扩展到100万件。沃尔玛也对超过35美元的订单进行免费配送。亚马逊迅速将免费配送的订单额降至25美元。摩根士丹利在最近的报告中提出了老牌零售商所面临的困难:“传统零售商面临的是一个非常难对付的竞争对手:2016年在全球的经营毛利润是2250亿美元,每年以29%的速度发展,边际利润控制在1%。”

当然,并不是所有人都认可这一评估。穆迪分析的首席经济学家Mark Zandi认为亚马逊对通货膨胀的整体影响很小,“让我们夸张的假设,如果亚马逊导致每年对零售通货膨胀率减小1%,那么这将使整体通货膨胀率减小0.15%。这是微不足道的,不会造成根本性改变。”但是,按照这个算法,每年在零售业减少1%,十年就是10%,同期通货膨胀就是1.5%。这虽然是个很夸张的假设,但即使有50%的正确性,所产生的效果也是巨大的。

无论如何,正如Liberty Media负责人Greg Maffei所言,对很多领域的首席执行官而言,亚马逊是“荒唐可怕的”竞争对手,“由于其庞大的规模,以及可以进行交叉补贴,亚马逊可以用非常低的成本、甚至负回报率进行投资,市场愿意相信未来盈利性。”

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