每日新闻更新 - 永不知足的逐利渴望 The Daily Update - Insatiable appetite for yield

老读者都知道,Stratton Street以价值为驱动,用众多不同的方式看世界。过去十多年来,中东是我们最关注的地区之一。单从国外净资产额(NFA)的角度来看,该地区大部分投资级国家的NFA评级都在5星或5星以上,即NFA占GDP的25%以上。另外,大约五年前,很多指数都没有考虑中东,当时中东市场也只发行最高10年期的债券。然而近年来,美国和欧洲等地区对中东债券的需求越来越大,而之前对此类债券都是避之而不及的。中东银行和投资公司对该地区收益曲线的成熟度没有那么多歧视性。

今天伊拉克新发的债券就是这种需求的一个例子。该债券为5年期,筹资10亿美元,收益率6.75%,这对追逐收益的人来说非常有吸引力,据报道该债券的认购已经超过7倍。全球高层次的投资银行也加入了购买行列,包括花旗、德银和摩根大通。尽管伊拉克的油气储备位居全球第5,NFA评级为3星,但我们并没有选择这支债券。首先,大部分读者会发现,我们的投资组合中主要是投资级的债券,而伊拉克的这支新发债券的惠誉评级为B-,标普对伊拉克的评级是B-。另外,根据我们的专属相对价值模型,这支债券的价格实际很高。它发行时的价差比美国国债高出493.10bps,这对一个饱受战争摧残、国家债务高度不稳定的国家来说,似乎已经是非常高的缓冲了。然而,根据我们的计算,拥有同样评级和久期的债券与美国国债的价差约为557bps,这意味着伊拉克这支债券的价格比其评级高出0.60档。

我们宁愿持有阿布扎比的特殊目的公司Ruwais发行的债券,该公司运营管理一家电力和海水淡化的工厂(Shuweihat 2),为阿布扎比和部分阿联酋地区供应水电。这家拥有重要战略地位的企业有一支2036年到期、利率为10.5%的债券,收益率为4.6%,预期回报率超过10%,评级为A3。这支债券有接近3档的信用缓冲,这也是影响我们选择债券的另一个重要因素。

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