每日新闻更新 - 美国非农就业指数 The Daily Update - NFPR

今天公布了美国七月份非农就业指数,显示新增非农就业岗位20.9万个,超出预期的18万,对前一月的数字进行了修订,增加了9000个岗位至23.1万。失业率从六月份的4.4%下降至4.3%,尽管参与率从62.8%增长到62.9%。平均时薪同比增长2.5%,去上个月持平。第2季度就业成本指数季度增长0.5%,同比增长2.4%。

今天的数字延续了美国最近改善的就业趋势以及萎靡不振的通胀水平和良性的工资前景。美联储公开市场委员会的下次会议计划在9月19-20日举行,我们预期美联储将实行资产负债表正常化,这是过去几个月向市场不断释放的信号。

虽然可以认为美联储已经实现了最大就业目标,但美联储偏好的通胀措施(个人消费支出)低于目标值2%,这让价格稳定的目标显得较为棘手。委员会成员的意见观点存在分歧,有的认为通胀疲软是暂时的,有的担心目标的实现可能会放缓,疲软会一直持续。在我们看来,这意味着要谨慎逐步地采取进一步加息政策,缓解“点阵”风险。

这意味着,美联储也必须考虑金融条件的缓和、美元疲软以及投资支出的增加。第二季度GDP增长2.6%(年化季环比),商业投资增长了5.2%(第1季度是7.1%)。但由于特朗普政府缺少财政刺激、税收改革和其他政策措施,美国经济发展很难反弹并保持在3%以上:不利的人口结构、长期性经济停滞、劳动生产率下降以及提高的全球债务水平,可谓根深蒂固。

国际货币基金在最近的第四条磋商报告中指出:“美国有效实现了充分就业。要成功实现可持续、高增长的政策改变,美国需要提高潜在发展途径。根据国际经验和美国历史数据,不太可能实现1%以上的同比增速。实际上,自从上世纪八十年来以来,发达经济体中只有极少数的几个国家实现了这个数据。主要发生在上世纪九十年代,当时有强劲的全球需求,很多都跟从萧条中复苏有关。美国就亲自经历了一次:从上世纪八十年代的衰退中恢复过来,实现了类似的发展规模。然而,这是发生在人口结构非常有利的阶段,有大量劳动力人口,联邦财政赤字加大,贸易伙伴的发展速度加快。而所有这些顺利条件都不可能在今天再次重现。”

我们仍然认为美联储将领先曲线,收益曲线将拉平,因此我们继续坚持持有长期头寸。

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