每日新闻更新 - 正面盈利,负面反应? The Daily Update - Positive reporting / Negative reactions?

市场安静得像大本钟(大本钟现在已停钟,将进行为期4年的维修)。尽管本月早些时候股市有一些反弹,朝鲜问题引起的紧张局势影响着每个大型经济体,但波动指数VIX在近10个月以来始终低于16(特朗普当选为美国总统的新闻报出期间有短暂的剧烈爬升)。股市一两天的抛售尚未导致任何其他问题,似乎没有什么能显著推动市场。当然,我们都知道现实不是这样美好,或者美好不会一直这样保持下去。我们也注意到,利好方面的波动也越来越疲软。

尽管近年夏天的金融市场非常安静,还是不断有收益报表出炉,大约90%的美国公开上市公司发布了他们过去6周在上一会计季度的报表。好消息是,整体而言,报告显的营收数字都压倒性地超出预测预期。FactSet估计接近四分之三的标普500企业超出华尔街每股收益预测,而实际上并没有这样出色。另外,接近70%的营收超过预测,这相当不正常,因为从历史来看,趋势趋于更平衡。这是收益新闻好的一面。

而不好的一面是市场对这些结果的反应。根据我们的计算,大约250家企业(这占了迄今为止已公布正面盈余报告的企业总数的75%)在发布了盈利报告新闻后市值下降。这种悲观并不正常,上次出现是在2011年第2季度。当然,标普500已经增长了80%,所以它还不能明确说明股市牛市将要褪去。但它的确引出了一个问题:如果在未来几个季度企业的销售和盈利低于预期,市场会如何反应。

2011年第二季度后,标普500的市盈率比率从大约15.5降至12.6,直到今年早些时候才冲到约22的位置。当然,市盈率不会一直高昂,但它在1999年科技泡沫期间曾窜到30。最近6个月市盈率已经下降到21以下,但如果未来像最近几周一样企业营收增加但股价基本保持不动,那么市盈率趋势会一直走低。当然,市盈率比率会因为其他明显的原因而走低,并降至历史平均水平区间,但在这之前,我们仍然认为来自净债权国的高评级债券拥有更好的价值和风险调整后收益。

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