每日新闻更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

8月2日特朗普将美国政府的《以制裁反击美国敌人法案》签署成为法律。标普认为,“这没有直接影响俄罗斯的BB+级主权债务评级及其积极的外汇基础”。穆迪认为,把制裁确定为法律对俄罗斯的信用会产生消极影响,因为这样一来如果要削减或解除制裁就需要国会的批准,这可能会打击外国直接投资,尽管穆迪也没有更改其对俄罗斯的Ba1(稳定)评级。他们也认为该制裁法将对俄罗斯的能源行业以及俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom(Ba1稳定)产生消极信用影响。市场对此的反应也比较乐观,截止本文发稿,以美元发行2027年到期的俄罗斯联邦债券(4.25%)以及2034年到期的Gazprom债券(8.625%)都以当月以来较高的价格进行交易。

据称,欧洲官员对此次制裁不满。报道称,欧盟主席Claude Juncker说“美国首先不能把欧洲利益放在最后”。这样的制裁可能会影响对关键天然气供应管道的投资,这是欧洲的一大难题。作为天然气净进口方,欧洲现在每年大约进口2000亿立方米天然气,而预期需求会继续增加。Gazprom满足了欧洲大约34%的天然气需求,诸如Nord Stream 2这样的项目对确保欧洲能源安全至关重要。

德国公共事业公司Uniper的首席执行官Klaus Schäfer这样评价美国制裁俄罗斯对欧洲天然气市场的影响:他相信Nord Steam 2管道(Gazprom的一个子项目,Uniper是投资方之一)将会建成,“欧洲能源政策不能任由美国经济和国内政策的摆布。德国政府和欧盟对这点很确定并明确表达立场,这也是让我非常高兴的一点。”目前来看,仍不明确事态会如何,但应该还有一些可以操控的余地:标普的Platts指出“目前来看,美国新定的制裁法案赋予特朗普一定的权力来制裁参与欧洲天然气管道项目的企业,但并没有强制他去执行。”标普也指出,“如果Gazprom需要独自承担Nord Stream 2的资金,我们认为它能消化金融冲击,且不影响其目前的信用等级。”

Schäfer认为俄罗斯管道天然气将继续是重要的供应源,因为管道天然气比液化天然气(LNG)更可靠、成本更低。亚洲通常会用比欧洲支付更高的价格来采购LNG,因此欧洲可能会在价格上同亚洲形成竞争。他指出,美国的LNG运输价格很高:“从总的成本价格来看,美国LNG的价格目前每MWh比欧洲的参考价高出5-10欧元,或者高出50%。”每155船从美国运出的LNG,只有17船用更低的运输成本或更高的LNG价格运到欧洲,欧洲300亿立方米进口LNG中只有12亿立方米来自美国。这些评论也印证了Gazprom的观点,后者认为LNG比管道天然气更昂贵。Schäfer总结说,“我相信,仅凭这些数字就足以说明依靠美国的LNG远不足以满足欧洲的需求。我认为管道天然气和LNG这两种天然气将继续在未来的全球天然气市场中发挥其各自的作用,并具有各自存在的合理性。”

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