每日新闻更新 - 美国,巴西,墨西哥——通货膨胀 The Daily Update - US, Brazil, Mexico - Inflation

上周五美国的通胀数字公布后,达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁Robert Kaplan表示,他希望美联储进一步确认通胀目标的实现正在取得进展,“实际上,我希望看到更多证据证明我们正在朝着实现通胀目标的方向前进。”他对目前的利率水平很满意,认为处于“对我们最有利的水平”。上周五,通胀数字连续第五次没有达到目标,环比和同比增长率都比预期低0.1%,分别是0.1%和1.7%。明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行主席Neel Kashkari也认为有必要等等看,他说:“消费物价指数在今天公布了,仍然很低。我们可以等等看实际情况是什么,然后再做出相应的货币政策。”截至本文写作时,根据彭博社的报道,从现在到年底期间进行加息的概率大约为30%,而上周这个数字接近42%。

上周,我们也报道了另外两个每周国家的通胀数据。根据巴西国家统计局的报告,巴西六月份的消费者价格增长了0.24%,这主要由于电价的提高,因此年度通胀率跌至18年以来的最低水平,尽管0.24%的水平仍然高于市场预期值0.18%,也优于六月份的0.23%。到7月份12个月以来的通胀为2.71%,距政府设定的4.5%的目标仍有很大差距。巴西在经历了100多年来最严重的萧条之后经济复苏缓慢,巴西政府已经将2019年年度通胀目标下调为4.25%,2020年下调为4%。

而墨西哥的通胀水平则高于预期。6.44%的通胀率达到2008年以来的最快速度,主要驱动力是水果和蔬菜价格的提高。墨西哥国家统计和地理研究所表示,七月份的水果和蔬菜价格比去年同期增长了21.86%。然而,墨西哥央行行长Agustin Carstens认为目前的通胀水平不可持续,他预期年度增长率会在明年初大幅下跌。

最后,美国中情局局长Mike Pompeo解释了目前美国和朝鲜的紧张局势,他说:“我始终没有看到任何情报显示我们处于核战的边缘。”周五中国国家主席习近平同特朗普通电话,劝特朗普和金正恩双方“停止挑衅”,这似乎发挥了作用,尽管他还远无法让自由世界的领导人闭嘴。

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