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从批判的角度来看,美国的通胀和工资水平非常健康:昨天发布的七月份个人消费支出紧缩指数与预期一致,仅为1.4%。我们仍然期待美联储能在9月19-20号的会议上宣布启动资产负债表正常化计划,但考虑到仍然疲软的通胀水平,预计美联储可能采取谨慎的做法,保持利率不变,并选择继续监控形势变化。现在的关键问题是,通胀疲软是暂时的,还是说实现通胀目标的进程已经放缓,通胀疲软状态会继续下去。例如,美联储公开市场委员会委员同时也是达拉斯州联邦储备银行主席Robert Kaplan在一次采访中说:“我很高兴我们今年两次修订利率,我对两次调整都很支持。我的意思是,我们正在接近中性利率,涉及到通胀的对抗性力量正在耗尽……我并不是说我不支持年底前提高利率,我想说我认为我们有能力再耐心些,我希望看到更多信息显示我们已经朝2%的通胀目标进展。”


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