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过去六年一样,八月份的非农就业报告再次让人失望,八月只有15.6万新增就业,远低于预期值18万。本周早些时候ADP就业报告显示有23.7万新增岗位,高于预期值18.5,这也许是造成了八月非农就业预测高涨。一直以来,八月份数据都很难预测,过去六年该月的初始预测数据最终都进行了上调修改。七月份的数字从20.9万下调修改至18.9万。该报告其他方面的数据也很疲软。参与率保持不变,仍未62.9%,失业率增高至4.4%。平均时薪仍很疲软,环比增长0.1%,同比增长2.5%,均低于市场预期,平均工作小时数降至34.4小时。

本周也发布了一些较强健的数据。美国消费者信心达到自2000年以来的第二高水平,美国第2季度GDP(季度年化)增速第二次预测调整为3%,消费增长数据上调修改为3.3%。也就是说,特朗普的税改演讲预示企业税率目标为15%;债务和预算天花板仍有待国会审核,因此目前很难预测会快速通过或推行任何政策倡议来持续有效地将美国经济增速提振到3%以上。在了解美国经济运行趋势时可能会发现未来几个季度比较复杂:美国第四大城市休斯顿最近遭受哈维飓风的严重影响,发布的数据可能因城市破坏和重建而有所失真。

从批判的角度来看,美国的通胀和工资水平非常健康:昨天发布的七月份个人消费支出紧缩指数与预期一致,仅为1.4%。我们仍然期待美联储能在9月19-20号的会议上宣布启动资产负债表正常化计划,但考虑到仍然疲软的通胀水平,预计美联储可能采取谨慎的做法,保持利率不变,并选择继续监控形势变化。现在的关键问题是,通胀疲软是暂时的,还是说实现通胀目标的进程已经放缓,通胀疲软状态会继续下去。例如,美联储公开市场委员会委员同时也是达拉斯州联邦储备银行主席Robert Kaplan在一次采访中说:“我很高兴我们今年两次修订利率,我对两次调整都很支持。我的意思是,我们正在接近中性利率,涉及到通胀的对抗性力量正在耗尽……我并不是说我不支持年底前提高利率,我想说我认为我们有能力再耐心些,我希望看到更多信息显示我们已经朝2%的通胀目标进展。”

良性的通胀数据已经让投资者预期不那么期望今年晚些时候会加息了,今天的数据更强化了这一点,截止本文发稿,10年期美国国债收率为2.13%。我们认为美联储仍会走在曲线之前,收益曲线将趋于扁平化,我们继续支持多头。

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