每日新闻更新 - 预算,税收改革,苹果公司 The Daily Update - Budget, tax reform and Apple

国会应该很快通过一项法案来临时绕开对债务设置上限。最终,还是会解决预算问题,可能时间会拖后。至于税收改革,就像修改奥巴马医改一样,也面临太多复杂因素,很难迅速完成,因此预算可能在今天剩下的时间里一直游离不定。或者,国会必须通过排除税收的相关法案。问题在于,尽管共和党已控制国会多年,但目前没有任何针对医改或税改的可行计划。

美国国会预算办公室和税收联合委员会在今年七月份发布了一项报告,认为特朗普的预算不会为未来10年带来创收,但该预算的目标是在2027年前实现政府收支平衡。几乎所有的差异都源自缺少政府详细信息(例如税改),这意味着对宏观经济反馈效果和财政乘数的反馈非常少。根据国会预算办公室的预测,特朗普的提议将在2018—2027年间每年使经济增长0.1%,而特朗普政府却宣称会额外带来1%的增长,显然这其中有很多争议点。

特朗普已表示美国的企业税税率目标为15%,并指出要将美国的税收系统改革得更加有效、富有竞争力。虽然消除无效性、降低总体税率非常有必要,但由于存在诸多漏洞,该问题很复杂,也未能起到效果。国会预算办公室在一份报告中对比了2017年3月与2012年之间的税率数据:按照税率最高级别(包括州税),美国是G20国家中最高的,达39.1%;按照平均企业税(企业税占收入的百分比),美国在G20国家中是第三高的,达29%;按照预期有效边际企业税(税收占边际投资回报的比重),美国是G20国家中第四高的,为18.6%。无论如何,这些排名数据说明还有改革的空间,但国会研究服务处指出,“法定税率差距同国际利润转移有关,有效税率对企业投资水平更有参考价值。”

特朗普热衷于将国际利润调回本国,此类利润的税率为39.1%(联邦税和州税):“通过降低对调回利润的惩罚性,并提供更多资金汇回便利,我们可以将数万亿美元的资金汇回美国,为我们苦苦挣扎的社区以及整个国家增加数百亿美元的新投资。”关于美国企业分散在海外的现金池实际规模,有各种猜测。例如,穆迪预测至2016年底,美国非金融性企业共持有约1.84万亿美元资金,其中1.3万亿分散在国外。特朗普预测的数字更大,认为“在3-5万亿美元之间”,但白宫认为全球500强企业在海外持有的资金数额约为2.6万亿美元。

也许苹果公司很能说明美国税收系统的一些无效性。据报道,苹果首席执行官Tim Cook曾说,“问题不在于对美国企业的国际收益征税,而是现有税收制度一直都很疯狂。没有人愿意在40%的税率之下——我是说35%的联邦税再加上州税,把利润汇回美国。这才是问题所在。我认为征收某种针对国际收益的税收——在税率合理的前提下,对美国来说是有益的。”标普预计苹果公司今年第二季度末在国内的现金额约为170亿美元,考虑到没有更有吸引力的税改举措激励将海外利润汇回国内,预期苹果将继续利用债券市场。标普预测苹果公司的总现金收入超过1580亿美元。

毫不意外,本周苹果公司在债券市场发行了2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期的债券,共筹资50亿美元,用来为其股票回购项目以及分红融资。从积极面看,美国税收系统的无效性为我们创造了绝佳的机会接入企业信贷。穆迪和标普对苹果公司的评级分别为Aa1和AA+,该公司一些现有债券非常有吸引力,例如2043年到期、票息为3.85%的债券,共融资30万亿美元,交易价格比其信用等级低4档。

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