每日新闻更新 - 世纪债券 The Daily Update - Century bonds for your grandchildren

奥地利刚发行了一支世纪债券,也是迄今百年国债中筹资最多的一支。100年太久,很难想象这意味着什么。去问任何一个经历了百年的人,他们很可能会告诉你一战末的事情,或者二战的可怕故事,要么是经济大萧条,或者女性第一次获得投票权。即使1918年奥地利第一共和国建立,到现在也不足100年。但这些丝毫不困扰那些购买了这支百年债券的人。

奥地利这支百年债券预期筹资10亿欧元,最终筹集了35亿欧元,这之前受到压抑的投资者的资金达到114亿欧元。3.2倍的超购清楚地显示出投资级主权债券领域对收益的需求,即使债券期限比发券国的建国史都长(目前的奥地利第二共和国也只有62年历史)。当然,百年债券的荒诞程度远不如千年(1000)债券,比如著名的Canada Pacific,还没有哪种已知货币的历史有这么久。

筹资达35亿欧元的奥地利世纪债券,是迄今百年债券中筹资最多的一支,这对一个人口还没有纽约市多的国家来说是不错的结果。最近很多欧洲国家一直在发行50年以上的债券,但很少有发行100年期的。去年比利时和爱尔兰发行了1亿欧元。阿根廷在今年六月发行了2117年到期的世纪债券,筹资27.5亿美元(本息97.5亿美元),票息为2.1%。久期方面存在很大的差别,阿根廷世纪债券的久期是8年,而奥地利则要求投资者承担44年的风险。大部分利息很可能来自使用这些融资的机构,来满足负债存续期。此类债券的供应很可能会很稀缺,之前美国财政部长Steven Mnuchin否决了今年早些时候要求美国发行世纪债券的提议,尽管50年期美国国债在未来还是有可能的。

当然,熟悉我们相对价值投资流程的读者可以看出,阿根廷和奥地利的百年债券对我们来说不够有吸引力(除非我们是希望举债的政府)。阿根廷的评级是B级,但即使兼顾到预期改进,目前的交易价格仍然很高。奥地利的国外净资产处于中立位置,评级很高,仅比AAA低一档,但遗憾的是,它的价格高出整个曲线。根据我们的模型,奥地利该债券长期收益率接近2.6%-2.8%(这可能没有太多不同,但可将久期缩短10年!)根据我们的投资流程,相较于投资奥地利的世纪债券,平均评级为A级的多元化投资组合可带来高出两倍的收益率,久期短四分之一

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