每日新闻更新 - 中国国企改革进展 The Daily Update - China’s SOE reform plans evolve

基于债务负担的不断增加,标普将中国长期信用评级下调一档至A+(稳定),同其他两家主流评级机构对中国的评级(A1和A+)达成一致。这是标普自1999年以来首次下调中国评级。中国在扼制金融风险方面(尤其涉及到影子银行)已做出重大进展,但债务仍在不断增加,尽管速度最近有所放缓,这说明资产等级已按降级后的等级水平进行定价。很奇怪的是,标普降级之后,人民币兑美元却升值,似乎毫不在意标普做出的信用降级,中国国债收益基本没有改变。市场对标普降级的反应完全不同于今年五月份穆迪对中国降级后的反应,五月份穆迪降级后市场发生了抛售行为。标普也对多家中国银行进行了降级,这些银行我们并没有多少接触。

中国在努力改革国有企业,昨天国务院批准了对国企融资集中控制的措施。我们推测这一做法旨在提高该领域的效率,并用来管理庞大的公司债务负担。据称,将有一家“中央金融公司”监管国企近2万亿(约3050亿美元)的借贷和投资。对于非金融类国企存款和借贷,将通过这一全新途径而不再经由大量机构完成,以此提升透明性。目前,官方没有提供关于该机构的详情,也没有透露可能的监控措施,但有报道称中国诚通和中国国新控股将负责建立一家中央企业,“协调公司间的商业合作,降低成本,减少债务,促进中国国内和国外的国有企业之间的其他金融联系”,彭博社如此报道。

中国国企控制了中国最具战略重要意义的行业,包括能源、金融和电信,因此他们比同类的私有企业更有竞争优势,因为他们不仅能得到更低成本的融资,而且更易于进入地方和海外市场。因此有声音呼吁加大国有企业中私有投资的比重和参与度,以便形成更多元化的管理,而不是增加政府控制。目前中国的国有企业超过100家,他们控制着中国庞大的资产。这让人很期待中国下月举行的党代会会有什么会议内容。可能做出抛售小型企业的决策,以此加强和精简资产,提高行业整体效率,增加投资,运营集团企业。

我们持有债券的中国国企包括:中国最大的原油天然气公司中国海洋石油公司(A1)、中国最大炼油厂和石化产品公司中国石化(A1)。尽管最近的评级下调,但像中国石化(票息3.125%,2023年到期)的信用缓冲仍然是2.5档,即该债券以BBB的价格进行交易。我们不认为目前有任何理由担心我们持有的高评级中国国企债券,但我们会继续监控这些企业,如果有必要将转向更好的价值机会。

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