每日新闻更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - Fed

不出预料,美联储将联邦基金利率保持在1%-1.25%,并宣布在10月份启动资产负债表正常化。六月份的《委员会政策正常化政策和方案》中就已经声明要启动资产负债表正常化。10月和12月,美联储将分别缩减国债和机构债券60亿美元和40亿美元,明年将每月的上限分别逐渐提升至最高300亿美元和200亿美元。

从市场的角度来看,引发的最热问题是更新后的12月份经济预期和点阵图峰值,市场对美联储可能(在12月)加息的预期增加至64%,美元兑欧元走强。

有6个参与者(六月份为5个)预期中值将在2018年达到25个基本点峰值,为2.125%。有意思的是,在15个参与者中预期长期政策利率低于3%的有9人,而六月份则是15个参与者中有6人。另外,15个参与者中有5人预计政策利率不超过2.5%。我们预期今年会出现峰值,有3个参与者认为明年会出现峰值,点阵图预期支持我们的偏好。

美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)声明指出最近飓风影响是暂时的,“过去的经验告诉我们,从中期来看,风暴不可能真正改变国家经济。因此,委员会预期货币政策会得到逐步调整,经济会得到适度发展,劳动力市场环境会进一步增强。”委员会参会人员预期2017年GDP中值略高于2.4%,2018年将保持2.1%不变。但今年和明年的核心个人消费指出通胀预期略有缓和,分别为1.6%和1.9%。

关于通胀问题,耶伦在其声明中指出“通胀率一直低于委员会设定的2%的长期目标,我们仍不完全了解促使通胀增长的因素,考虑到今年超出预期的低膨胀率,委员会将继续密切关注通胀变化。”无论如何,她看到了通胀的疲软是暂时的,“今年的通胀不足主要反映了增长跟更广泛的经济环境并不十分相关。例如今年早些时候一些领域的价格非正常降低,如无线电话服务,到现在仍在拉低通胀水平,但这些影响应该是暂时的。这些发展很正常,只要通胀预期保持在合理水平,而不是出于政策的巨大担忧。”

总体而言,我们预期通胀状况将保持良性,美国经济将受到压抑,点阵图预期将有下行风险。如果美联储要执行所有预期加息和资产负债表正常化,我们很担心经济衰退的风险增加。我们认为美联储会走在曲线的牵头,收益曲线会拉平,我们继续支持进行长期投资。

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