每日新闻更新 - 美联储,挪威主权财富基金 The Daily Update - Fed, Norway SWF

昨天美联储副主席费希尔(Stanley Fischer)因个人原因提交了辞职信。费希尔是很多重人物的导师,这包括前美联储主席伯南克以及欧洲央行行长德拉吉,他在2005-2013年担任以色列银行行长,是世界银行的前首席经济学家。费希尔的任期到2018年6月,出人意料的是他提出辞呈的时间点。通常美联储副主席不会连任,这跟主席一职不同,前主席沃尔克、格林斯潘和伯南克都得以连任。但这的确给特朗普一个切实的机会来变革美联储。费希尔十月份正式离职后,美联储的七个理事会席位将空出四个。

作为全球最大的主权财富基金,总额接近1万亿美元的挪威财富基金正计划将其债券币种从23种减少为3种:英镑、欧元和美元。9月1日向挪威财政部提交的审批申请文件指出,“通过国际多元化获得的收益对股票来说非常可观,但对债券却很有限”。这适用于挪威持有的3330亿美元债券。“对一个70%的投资都采用国际多元股票投资组合的投资者来说,进行多币种多元化债券投资不会增加风险。将币种限制在美元、欧元和英镑不会使其他货币的投资失效。我们认为这些资金会继续投入到我们建议移除的一些货币和领域中。最终,基准指数和投资组合之间的偏差会增加。”该基金将尽可能限制偏差。据说新的基准是:美元54%,欧元38%,英镑8%。

整体来说,挪威基金担心政府债券市场会进行密切跟踪。收益率相当的日本债券即是如此,尽管目前日本的通胀水平为0.4%,德国的年通胀率为1.8%。日本央行每年购买80万亿日元(7260万亿美元)债券,同采用三大主要货币相比,市场“很大但缺乏流动性”。风险在于,日本政府债券没有多元化收益,但如果市场下滑,将面临售出困难。

中亚国家塔吉克斯坦(穆迪评级B3)即将发行首支债券。预期是10年期,总额超过10亿美元,被纳入摩根大通新兴市场债券指数,在众多新兴市场基金中,这一支最受欢迎。所融资金将用于建设中亚地区全球最大水坝和最大水力发电站。

预期该债券收益率为6.25%,略高于白俄罗斯最近发行的债券(信用低1档,收益率略高6%)。根据我们的相对价值模型,这支B3级、8.5年久期的债券的价差约为+657点,年收益率约为8.66%。考虑到塔吉克斯坦的外汇储备仅为6亿美元,低于其年偿债额,对这支即将发行的债券的青睐充分说明了市场的疯狂程度。

我们不会持有该债券,就像那句老话说的,“只借钱给有偿还能力的”。

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