每日新闻更新 - 德国大选/特朗普和伊朗 The Daily Update - German election / Trump & Iran

人们一定想知道德国总理默克尔今天上午的心里感受,毕竟昨天的大选她以压倒性优势获胜,尽管大选结果颇令人失望。虽然默克尔所在的保守党赢得了最多的选票,支持率达33%,但比2013年的大选支持率下降了近9%,并且选民投票率是自1949年以来的最低水平。默克尔的合作党派社会民主党的支持率也跌至战后最低水平,仅为20%出头,并表示将成为反对党。

然而,反对移民的极右翼另路德国党的支持率却大幅提升,获得13%的选票,这是自二战后极右翼党首次进入德国议会。默克尔的部分选票被另路德国党夺去,部分原因是很多德国人反对她在2015-2016年做出决策允许100多万难民进入德国。另路德国党的主要候选人Alexander Gauland号称要“追捕”默克尔,“夺回我们的国家和人民”,着实描述了一番情景。

如果社会民主党坚持成为反对党,默克尔的联盟选择将指向“牙买加”联盟(该命名是由于其联盟标志很像牙买加国旗),该联盟包括赢得10.7%选票的自由民主党和赢得9%支持率的绿党。然而,组建联盟需要进行数月的谈判,自由民主党主席Christian Lindner曾暗示愿意开启对话,但“要改变国家方向”。自由民主党一向反对加深欧元一体化,Lindner曾发推特说“600亿欧元预算流入法国或意大利,对我们来说是不可理解的……”

上周特朗普攻击奥巴马的伊朗协议是“美国缔结的最恶劣最单面的协议,它使美国陷入尴尬”,而英国则签署了同伊朗加深经济合作的协议。该协议总额7.2亿美元,用于开发大型太阳能园区,也是“联合全面行动方案”(JCPOA)核协议的一部分,作为伊朗削减核武器的交换,国际将解除对伊朗的制裁。尽管特朗普有如此言论,但该核协议的其他缔约国中国、法国、德国、俄罗斯和英国承诺遵守协议。去年英国同伊朗的贸易额增长了42%,今年贸易额到目前为止增长了57%。

本周早些时候,76位欧洲领导人写了一封致美国总统的公开信,敦促特朗普遵守该协议,并警告称如果美国放弃该协议,其他缔约国“即使没有美国的参加,也将继续同伊朗维持核协议,包括阻止欧洲企业和个人进行任何美国发起的制裁,并支持为此采取法律行动”。

该公开信称,自从签署该协议“伊朗已经拆除了三分之二的铀浓缩离心机,运出超过10,000公斤铀,停止了钚反应堆的运行,输出用过的核染料,允许进入其核工厂和供应链”。伊朗的这些做法,让欧洲和全球安全得到了显著改善,JCPOA协议只是整个过程的第一步,这一定能改善中东、欧洲和其他区域所有国家地区的安全水平。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.