每日新闻更新 - 全球债务警告/意大利债务 The Daily Update - Global debt warning / Italian debt

根据国际清算银行(BIS)的报道,由于国际会计惯例用来对冲和外汇债券,全球经济未入账的债务额已经超过10亿美元,可能高达14万亿美元。BIS研究人员认为,“丢失的”债务造成的最大隐患是出现如同金融危机一样的流动性枯竭。BIS货币与经济部主任Claudio Borio在上一季度的报告中强调了这一风险,指出外汇风险“未显象化,会计管理使其作为衍生物,通常为表外业务,但它实际上是抵押贷款,需要到期全额偿还本金。”他还继续解释了BIS认为外汇交易会产生问题的原因,“大部分短期外汇掉期和远期合约可能会产生到期错配,进而形成大量的流动性需求,特别是在有压力的阶段”。

除了债务警告,BIS还提出,全球经济已经习惯了低利息,这导致任何加息都会对全球经济复苏产生负面影响,Borio警告说,如果开始加息,市场和企业都可能需要数年才能缓解过来,这已经导致了资产价格膨胀。他认为,市场已经认定如果全球经济再次遇挫,各国央行和政府不会袖手旁观,“我们并不完全理解发挥作用的因素。另一个原因可能是市场参与者认为如果出现不合理的市场压力,央行将不会置身事外。所有这些都显示资产价格非常依赖一直很盛行的低债券收益。”

谈到债务,上周意大利银行宣布意大利公债已经超过2.3万亿欧元。这个南地中海国家的债务占GDP的比重已经超过132%,是欧元区仅次于希腊的第二大债务国。如果这还不够恶劣的话,意大利雇工联合会指出意大利年轻人移居国外的比例越来越高,2015年40岁以下的意大利人移居国外的意大利人数不少于5.1万,估计造成140万亿欧元的成本损失,相当于每年损失GDP的1%。根据欧就业社会发展部的报告,将近20%的意大利年轻人(15-24岁)处于失业、求职或全日制学习的状态。尽管这比去年的数据略有减少,但考虑到欧盟的年轻人平均失业率为11.5%,意大利政府还需要下很大的功夫才能让出国寻求工作机会的年轻人相信留在国内会有更好的前途。

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