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今年8月2日特朗普签署了《以制裁反击美国敌人法案》,该法案赋予特朗普对俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗进行制裁的权利,但制裁并非必须执行,废除该法案需要首先获得国会批准。

然而,美国以制裁为核心的外交政策在国际社会受到不同的回应。例如,欧洲虽然也有针对俄罗斯的系列制裁(最近将对俄制裁延长至2018年1月),但据说欧洲对美国最近的制裁活动及其可能对欧洲利益造成的负面影响很不满。欧洲是俄罗斯天然气的重要进口国:欧洲能源需求的34%来自俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom,欧洲企业大量投资能源及天然气管道相关的工程。尽管欧盟主席Claude Juncker曾说:“如果美国继续[采取新的制裁做事],我们会在几天内做出充分的回应。结果,针对俄罗斯的相当一部分预期制裁并没有实施。另外,现在美国国会在批准制裁方案前都会先同盟友国家商讨。我相信我们仍然是美国的盟友。”

另一个例子是本周早些时候,美国意识到需要淡化对朝鲜的制裁方案,以此避免俄罗斯和中国在联合国的否决票,这两个国家反对石油禁运,并强调通过外交解决争议。前美国驻联合国大使Bill Richardson对制裁的观点是,‘有总比没有好,但不足以对朝鲜构成实际压力’。

本月早些时候,普京在金砖峰会的新闻发布会上谴责朝鲜的挑衅行为,他说,“在朝鲜问题上,任何制裁都是没用、无效的。正如昨天我跟一个同僚所讲,朝鲜会面临贫困的局面,但在感到安全之前,他们不会放弃核试验。”普京很坚定地认为“外交是解决朝鲜核问题的唯一出路”。

问题是,制裁并不总是有效的方式。例如,俄罗斯已经成功顶住了因乌克兰问题的制裁,因为俄国没有巨额的未尝外债,其2012年的国外净资产比重超过14%(在2014年7月的制裁前),本身即有充足的资金缓冲来满足融资需求。另外,尽管油价下跌对政府收入造成极大影响,但俄国的弹性汇率很好地缓冲了这一打击。

另外,俄国也一直很务实地寻求来自中国和亚洲的资本,以缓解因制裁会妨碍外国直接投资的担忧。俄罗斯的竞争优势之一就是大量的能源储备,这正是中国所缺少的,因此中俄之间存在长期合作的充裕空间。2014年俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom与中国石油天然气公司CNPC签署了一份4000亿美元的供气合同:从2018年起,在未来30年内每年向中国输送380亿立方米天然气。本周,中国能源公司(GEFC)宣布从卡塔尔投资局(Qatar Investment Authority)和瑞士嘉能可(Glencore)受众购买了俄罗斯石油公司Rosneft 14.16%的股份。卡塔尔投资局和嘉能可对Rosneft的持股从19.5%减为5.34%。今年早些时候,Rosneft和中国能源公司签署了战略合作协议,涉及到开发、生产以及下游活动,例如炼油、石化产品以及石油产品贸易。

九月初,普京在符拉迪沃斯托克的东部经济论坛全会中表示,“我们向所有伙伴,包括太平洋东岸和西岸的国家,敞开投资、贸易和金融融资的大门,我们尤其认为俄国远东地区的投资机会是巨大的。”我们认为应该肯定俄罗斯面向未来、“东向政策”的做法。

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