每日新闻更新 - 挪威 The Daily Update - Norway

本周挪威大选,由保守党主席Erna Solberg领导右翼政府继续执政:以保守党为首的联盟获得169个席位中的88个。保守党和反对移民的进步党将形成联盟,组建依靠基督民主党和自由党支持的少数政府。

虽然对结果一开始可能有维持“现状”,但中右翼党派控制的席位较少,Solberg将需要获得季度民主党和自由党的支持来通过立法。毫不意外的是,Solberg已经邀请各党派进行商谈。据报道,基督民主党不同意用联盟来取代正式盟友,包括同进步党达成联盟,也不支持主要的反对党工党。

该结果可视为对中右翼政府通过财政刺激来促进经济复苏的政策的认可,也是30年来首次保守党领导人获得连任,尽管险胜。它也体现了工党对提高税收的精选承诺,以及在Jonas Gahr Støre领导之下的惨不忍睹的竞选状态。

自从2014年石油价格骤降,挪威政府开支占GDP的比重从21%增加到24%,削减税收显示了拥有巨大主权财富基金(SWF)的优势。挪威的SWF价值1万亿美元,大约相当于挪威GDP的2.5倍。尽管由于主权财富基金的提权上限从4%下降到3%,未来财政政策会收紧,但是预计将与进步党达成联盟,财政紧缩可能会有所缓和。

大选结果也显示公众支持当前政府能源政策战略,能源政策是影响挪威主权财富基金的重要因素。该基金创建于1998年,旨在为后代储蓄来自石油天然气的收入。反对党绿党支持终止挪威石油开采,最终分析显示其支持率最低。

大选结果不太可能很大程度地改变宏观政策,尽管该届政府的盟友可能以提供支持换区一些让步。例如,自由党希望减少钻探开采能源政策,支持对开发进行税收补贴:他们反对开放“脆弱领域”,例如罗佛敦群岛和西奥仑群岛,来进行石油开采以及对北极地区的探索。这一立场同进步党恰好相左。Solberg支持减少对石油的依赖,但这需要逐步推进,因为石油生产大约占经济的12%,并提供大约20万个工作岗位。无论如何,考虑到大选结果,我们估计挪威的评级将保持不变,穆迪和标普的评级分别是Aaa和AAA,展望为稳定。

虽然我们认为挪威的主权基金有众多优势,但我们更倾向于该国的准财富债券Statoil。该公司是挪威的大型开发和生产企业,挪威政府控股67%。穆迪认为Statoil获得了政府的大力支持,体现了该公司在挪威经济中的战略地位以及对挪威声誉的重要性,因此将其信用评级提升2档至Aa3(稳定)。根据我们的模型,以美元发行的Statoil ASA(2043年到期,票息3.95%)的收益率为3.87%,交易价格比信用级低2.4档。

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