每日新闻更新 葡萄牙评级上调,加泰罗尼亚可能退出欧盟 - The Daily Update - Portugal upgrade and potential 'Cexit'

标普上调了葡萄牙的主权债券评级,从次级投资级上调至BBB-。2011年葡萄牙接受了780亿欧元的救助资金后,标普即在2012年将葡萄牙的评级调为垃圾级,认为它无法承受巨额的债务负担。对于本次上调评级,标普给出的理由是,“在减少预算赤字以及外部金融市场恶化风险方面,葡萄牙取得了稳步进展”。穆迪和惠誉对葡萄牙长期债券的评级仍为垃圾级。

葡萄牙经济已经得到改善,最近数据显示该国失业率为8.8%,低于地区平均水平,也是自2009年以来的最低水平。2013年的失业率飙至17%。然而,同其他发达经济体一样,葡萄牙仍然挣扎在低通胀率中。

意料之中的是,在评级上调消息发布后,基准曲线已大幅缩紧,10年期收益率反弹至2016年以来的最高水平。10年期基准比10年期基金的交易价格高约195bps(截至发稿),这是自2016年年初以来的最紧水平。葡萄牙5年期CDS也收缩至约135bps,交易价格比二月份峰值的两倍还高,而考虑到土耳其仅为25bps,这一交易价格仍然很高。

尽管评级上调为投资级,葡萄牙债务水平仍然不可持续,债务占GDP的比值为125%,这也是我们没有将葡萄牙纳入我们投资考虑范畴的原因之一。过去几年中,债务占GDP的比值围绕在130%左右,根据穆迪的数据,这属于Ba1等级的国家中水平最高的范畴。穆迪认为葡萄牙的债务负担能力(利息收入与财政收入的比例)去年为10%,而意大利和西班牙分别为8.4%和7.4%。非金融企业债务水平也高于其他国家,2017年第1季度约为178%,阻碍了经济的发展。银行业仍然存在很大的隐患,尽管权威部门认为今年第1季度不良贷款率约为18.5%。除此之外,一段时间之内葡萄牙仍不会被纳入我们的投资组合,因为按照我们的NFA模型,其评级为1星,收益曲线也不足以提供充分的风险调节收益。

在邻国西班牙,13天之后可能上演独立公投,加泰罗尼亚地区议会通过了公投决议。根据该法案,如果结果显示多数人投“yes”支持,那么加泰罗尼亚将在48小时内宣布独立,欧盟主席荣科对此表示,届时加泰罗尼亚将即刻退出欧盟,按照2004年欧盟成员国加入欧盟的流通申请加入。马德里正在采取一切方式阻止投票,并声称不承认公投的合法性。据报道呈,西班牙政府可能切断投票站的电力供应,也可能采取暴力确保无人前去投票。

加泰罗尼亚的经济目前约占西班牙GDP 的20%。根据西班牙经济部长Luis de Guindos,加泰罗尼亚的经济可能会缩减25%-30%,失业率会翻一番。由于加泰罗尼亚不属于欧盟,因此产品和服务的出口税可能高达75%。另外,如果多数票支持独立,将使西班牙Baa2/BBB+的评级水平面临压力。我们没有投资西班牙,因为按照NFA模型,其为2星,回报率也不具有吸引力,但我们将在未来两周持续关注相关结果。

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