每日新闻更新 - 俄罗斯央行救助私有银行 The Daily Update - Russia Central Bank’s bailout of private bank

上周俄罗斯中央银行对Otkritie银行进行救助,这是俄罗斯最大规模的银行业救助。Otkritie因贷款组合和遭质疑的商业惯例引起担忧而遭受大规模存款外流。Otkritie是俄罗斯第二大私有银行,在俄罗斯十大具有系统性重要地位的银行中位列第七(按资产),因此被认为是太大不可倒闭。

救助资金将来自补充性银行流动性融通。俄罗斯已经新立法允许央行有效控制陷入困境(且值得借助)的银行,这次流动性融通即是在该立法后建立的。俄罗斯央行已经计划持有Otkritie银行75%的股份,但具体的融资金额目前仍不明确,整个评估过程最长需要八个月。根据俄罗斯银行,如果未来三个月Otkrite的资本为负值,那么该银行的股东有可能丧失全部股权,所有次级债务将被注销。

这次救助发生的时间很出人意料:俄罗斯的经济正平稳复苏(2017年第2季度经济同比增长2.5%),银行业也平稳运营,不良贷款似乎已经达到峰值,资产充足率更强劲。救助Otkritie对俄罗斯银行业有积极的影响,自从2014年开始整顿以来,俄罗斯已经有三分之一的放款机构失去了执照。一个很好的例子就是Yugra银行,在被报道伪造账户后,其执照就被撤销了。

我们从未持有Otkritie的债券(次投资级),目前也未持有该银行任何大股东(包括Lukoil和VTV银行)的债券。上月穆迪在对Otkritie的降级审评中表示,该银行客户存款的波动性提高,增加了银行流动性压力。根据穆迪的报告,截止2017年6月1日,该银行的客户存款额降至流动资金的18%,主要由于非国有养老金和多个大型企业抽离资金,导致资金储蓄大量流式。

我们经常讨论准主权债券的优势以及它们从政府得到的隐形支持的重要性。在这个案例中,Otkritie虽然是私有银行,但对俄罗斯金融体系具有系统性重要作用,也正因此才得到救助。经常阅读我们文章的读者都知道,我们倾向于持有优质的国有债券,这能提供充足的风险调节价差缓冲。比如,我们持有俄罗斯国有开发银行Vnesheconom(VEB)2023年到期票息为5.942%的债券。根据穆迪的报道,该银行得到俄罗斯政府支持的几率非常高,认为VEB与政府有紧密的关联,当需要对各种重大项目融资时,有助于该银行获得国有资金和资本。今年截至目前为止,该债券已经增长了4个基本点,预期回报率仍然很有吸引力,超过9.2%,信用缓冲超过两档。

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