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近日俄罗斯又有一家私有银行接受救助,这一次是资产额在俄罗斯银行中位列12位的B&N银行。俄罗斯央行在周四宣布将对B&N银行进行救助,但并未透露太多具体细节。同上次救助的Otkritie银行不同,B&N银行在俄罗斯并不属于具有系统性重要作用的银行。但由于俄罗斯央行急于避免发生多米诺效应,因此决定介入。

八月份刚刚对Otkritie银行进行救助,很快又救助第二家银行,这会造成消极情绪。然而,俄罗斯央行一直积极致力于解决金融业的薄弱环节,已经关停了三分之一他们认为过于疲软和资金不足的银行。另外,俄罗斯央行将11家银行列为具有系统性重要作用的银行(SIB),这些银行拥有充足的流动性和资金需求,会受到更严厉的监督,但他们也会依靠来自俄罗斯央行的流动性支持。从2018年开始,这些银行还需要遵守《巴塞尔净稳定资金比率协议III》的要求。穆迪预测SIB银行资产占俄罗斯所有银行资产的67%。

标普在9月15日的一份最近审核报告中确认了俄罗斯长期外汇评级为BB+,展望为积极。标普认为俄罗斯金融系统是“脆弱的”,但也指出俄罗斯有“强健的外部和资产负债表”,预期俄罗斯将在经济领域做出一些改变,2017年GDP增速将恢复至1.8%。

标普也注意到俄罗斯金融领域的脆弱性,并指出:“在过去几年中,俄罗斯央行提供的解决境况不佳的银行以及储户保险支出的资金规模,已经超过GDP的2%。对Otkritie银行进行救助后,俄罗斯央行的资金支出将增加,如果其他相对较大的私有银行也需要资金支持,那俄罗斯央行将面临更大的成本压力。”在处理这一点时,“俄罗斯政府没有直接使用预算资金”。即使标普考虑到这一流动性问题以及Vnesheconombank银行的外债,标普仍预测2017-2018年俄罗斯政府流动性资产债务净额占GDP的比重将低于15%;但使用储备基金以及在国内市场发行债券进行赤字融资,将产生消极效果。较低的政府债务水平仍然是俄罗斯的主要信用优势。

类似的,惠誉在Otkritie银行获得救助后指出,他们不认为这会对俄罗斯资产负债表产生重大影响,认为俄罗斯政府自2014年以来,为救助银行业所用的资金占2016年GDP(86万亿卢布)的3.5%(合计3.2万亿卢布)。到目前为止,报告显示Otkritie银行的救助成本为6.9万亿美元。据报道,俄罗斯央行行长Vasily Pozdyshev认为根据初步估算,救助B&N银行及其支行将需要2500-3500亿卢布(约合60亿美元)。

有争议认为,最大的不确定性之一是俄罗斯仍处于受制裁的境况。但标普的评估已经考虑到了这一增加的不确定性,他们认为美国和欧洲从2014年起实施的制裁措施将延续到2020年。当然美国解除对俄制裁将需要更长的时间,因为需要获得国会许可。然而,正如我们之前提到的,由于俄罗斯拥有客观的外汇储备和资产缓冲,已经能自如应对制裁。俄罗斯通过与中国达成众多长期能源合作项目,也一直可以有效地找到其他资金来源。

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