每日新闻更新 - 斯洛文尼亚信用等级上调,但交易价格仍很高 The Daily Update - Slovenia upgraded….but still expensive

上周,穆迪出人意料地将斯洛文尼亚的评级上调了两档,从Baa3调至Baa1,并指出上调主要原因是:“由于财政整顿和强劲的经济发展,以及银行业、司法和行政机构在结构改革方面取得持续进展,使该国债务超有利的方向发展。”

显然,评级机构对斯洛文尼亚的信用等级存在分歧。标普对该国的长期评级为A+(六月份上调了一档,比穆迪的评级高出三档),惠誉对该国的评级为A-。毫无疑问,斯洛文尼亚的基本面比2013年被穆迪评为垃圾级有了很大的改善。穆迪预测斯洛文尼亚今年的名义预算赤字是GDP的0.8%,2018年的债务占GDP的比重将低于75%,经常账户盈余占GDP的比重将高于5%。我们对该国国外净资产(NFA)评级为4星,比2014年的3星有所提升,这样来看斯洛文尼亚的投资级债券符合我们的标准。

然而,我们的全球债券基金中并没有纳入该国债券,因为它们的吸引力没有达到预期。按欧元基准曲线,7年期债券的交易为负收益率水平,10年期收益率目前低于1%,30年期主权债券收益率仅为约2.07%。实际上,30年期债券的价差约为95点,尽管信用比AAA级的德国债券低4档(按最佳评级)。如果按照斯洛文尼亚的最高评级A+来算,其2045年到期、票息3.125%的债券的价格仍然很高,而其他类似等级债券的价差约为115点。斯洛文尼亚美元发行的主权债券价格也很高,例如2024年到期、票息为5.25%的债券,价差为60点,而类似债券的价差约为70点。

我们未持有任何欧元发行的债券,因为美元债券的交易价差相对更大。用我们非常看好的智利国有企业Codelco的债券作比较。其A1级、票息为2.75%并于2024年到期的欧元债券收益率和回报率为5.60%,而其美元发行的票息2.4%于2025年到期的债券的预期回报率和收益率为6.5%。

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