每日新闻更新 - 美国飓风季 The Daily Update - Storm season in the US

尽管有很多关于政治和金融市场潜在风暴的讨论,但目睹和预测真实的飓风席卷美国大西洋沿岸城市仍让人很难过。德克萨斯州正在经历飓风哈维的余波,这是2005年飓风威尔玛之后第一个大型飓风登陆美国;现在飓风伊玛正在经过加勒比海,超佛罗里达州进发,之后飓风荷西也很快登陆。飓风造成惨重的人间悲剧,但很难估计这些灾难带来的经济损害。

飓风伊玛宽400英里,面积相当于法国,行进速度为185mph,是大西洋湾有记录的最强飓风。很多与海平面持平的加勒比海岛已经被淹没,仅上升的海水就足以让该地区数周无法居住。除了公众安全隐患,这场5级飓风严重影响了迈阿密和朱庇特岛等富裕地区,造成了前所未有的灾难性后果(很多富人对豪宅购买了飓风险)。

预计飓风哈维已造成约1500-1800亿美元的损害,其中超过30%似乎将由保险公司支付。大型保险公司和再保险商,例如Berkshire Hathaway及其子公司GEICO,可能需要同时为美国史上10大最昂贵的飓风中的2大飓风买单。随着更多伊玛的信息公布,昨天Berkshire集团的股票下跌超过2%。如果伊玛的破坏力跟哈维一样,那么这两场飓风每场都相当于卷走美国年生产总值的1%(美国GDP约为18万亿美元)。美国今年GDP增长预期为2.1%,这些飓风灾难足以消除今年增加的所有生产力。

在这个多灾多难的季度GDP面临的不利面很明显,很多人预期这之后阶段的需求和生产力可能会提高,但这种效应并不是发展的万能灵药。生产渠道受损,供应商持久受影响,低效率导致产出净亏损和价格提升。增加的总资本支出主要用于重建,却未增加整体资本存量,从其他行业转移支出。经济学家将这种现象称为“破窗”效应,专指由法国经济学家巴斯夏在1850年提出的消极影响。

飓风预警之后,国债价格反弹,10年期收益率降至2.1%以下,30年期降至2.7%以下。投资评级与债券基本一致。今天其他地区的市场表现相对平稳,公布的小型经济数据与预期基本一致,今天晚些时候将公布的经济黄皮书也不会有太多新闻。

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