每日新闻更新 - 特朗普和耶伦的评论提振市场信心 The Daily Update - Tump and Yellen comments raise hope

今天美元和美股指数继续反弹,10年期国债收益增长5个基本点。本周到目前为止,美元指数已增长了1.4%,截至发稿已经至93.4点,恢复至上月同期水平。这部分可能因为最近欧元上涨(年初到现在欧元兑美元增长了约12%)。美元上扬以及国债下跌是由于美联储主席耶伦和纽约州联邦储备银行行长William Dudley的鹰派言论以及市场对特朗普总统在今天晚些时候关于预期的税改建议持有的乐观态度。

耶伦昨天在全美商业经济协会发表讲话,表示支持进一步加息,这使得12月加息的预期概率增长到70%。整个曲线的债券收益增加,但前端表现仍然低于历史数据,2年期收益为1.48%,这是2008年以来的最高水平(修改后的久期是一种具有同等效果的衡量风险的方式)。到期较长的债券收益相对强健稳定,这部分原因是任何有可能的税收改革产生的增长刺激是暂时的。长期联邦基金目标利率为2.75%,达到了史上最低水平,五位投票成员预测长期目标利率为2.5%或更低。14个成员中只有一人现在认为长期目标利率在3%以上,2年前只有1位成员投票支持将利率目标定在3%,中值为3.5%(比目前高出0.75%)。

考虑到美联储最近的言论,12月份加息的可能性增加并不像之前那样“数据独立”。耶伦的言论以及联邦公开市场委员会纪要传达了希望继续加息的期望,尽管通胀和中性利率预期进行了下行修改。

耶伦在评论通胀时指出:“通胀下行压力可能会超出预期一直持续下去,通胀预期将继续保持在合理的范围内,通胀一直超出意料低于模型预期,今天的低通胀率也许是暂时的”。她总结了劳工和通胀展望,指出“我认为我们目前持有的数据说明劳动力市场基本健康,不存在疲软或过热现象,通胀补偿显著下降可能说明最近的长期通胀预期已经下滑。”

考虑到对通胀展望的调整,近期加息实际上将有助于营造市场稳定性和自信。我们也期望特朗普能稍微缓和一下他对税改的称赞强度。特朗普需要为没有经费的减税争取大量的支持,特别是考虑到最初的医改法案胎死参议院:参议院现在拒绝进行投票表决。但市场很喜欢特朗普的言论,因为它能带来暂时的乐观情绪。然而,我们看不到任何证据证明市场能消化这种不现实的经济刺激。

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