每日新闻更新 - 2018年苹果公司的国内纳税以及海外借贷 The Daily Update - Apple US taxes and borrowing in 2018

本周早些时候美国政府解决了持续3天的关门问题,至少会运行到2月8日。今天我们再从不同方面了解一下美国的《2017年减税与就业法案》(以下简称税改方案)。该法案通过已有一月。美国国会预算局的初步预算显示,该法案将在未来10年增加超过1万亿国家债务(即使在宏观经济反馈效应之后)。这还没有不包括按基线预测增加的10万亿债务以及现有的20万亿国家债务。美国国家债务可能增加到约31万亿美元,没有人能说准未来十年美国政府还将面临多少次关门。

税改方案为跨国企业提供了巨大的激励政策,海外收入税率从35%降至15.5%,国内所得税从35%降到21%,资本性资产减税额度从50%增长到100%。该法案也将美国从全球征税制度转变为属地缴税制度,这意味着美国企业无需将总部搬到海外也能享受税负倒置的益处。

据普遍估计,美国企业目前在海外拥有约3万亿美元的现金。仅苹果公司在海外就预计有大约2520万亿美元现金。税改方案通过之前,对这种留存在海外的收益执行惩罚性的35%的税率,所有这些现金几乎很难使用。这就是说,尽管苹果公司在过5年的自由现金流和股本回报保持相对稳定,但该公司的总债务已经从2012年的零水平至少增长到2017年九月份的1150亿美元,总现金流(主要在海外)从2012的1000亿美元增长到2690亿美元。在此期间,苹果公司发行的长期债券一直是现金充裕的Aa1等级中稍纵即逝的价值投资机遇。

如果苹果公司将所有这些现金带回美国国内,将产生390亿美元的税收。苹果公司已经为此类事宜留置了360亿美元的资金,这说明该公司可能把大部分海外现金寄回国内。如此一来,苹果公司也就没必要再发行近些年一直在发行的各类债务。从2015年5月开始,我们就持有苹果公司的债券。当时这支2043年到期的债券票息为3.85%、收益率为4.3%,相当于提供了142点的价差,是非常可观的价值收益。根据我们的相对价值模型,类似久期的Aa1债券的公允价差只有52点。具体来说,1年期间的公允价值回报相当于回报率和收益率加起来有18.8%的收益。该债券的价差已经收紧了56点,现在只有86点,我们预计类似久期的Aa1债券的公允价差会再收紧8点至44点。该债券仍能提供可观的价值收益。税改方案可能让本来就稀有的Aa1企业债券变得更稀缺,因为像苹果等科技企业以及强生等制造商正在缩小借贷规模。

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