每日新闻更新 - 国外净资产概念的倡导者、欧洲央行理事会“最佳经济学家”Philip Lane将成为欧洲央行副行长的热门人选 The Daily Update - NFA Pioneer Philip Lane Top Contender for ECB vice-presidency and 'best economist' on ECB governing council

熟悉我们的读者和投资人士都知道,我们非常注重国外净资产(NFA)分析,我们的投资理念也倾向于将投资界划分成债权人和债务人。在过去二十年中,一个国家的NFA在长期货币方向以及信贷价值中所处的位置,是我们关注的核心主题。我们借助NFA来辨识不连贯的定价,例如2009年晚期希腊债务,其收益率跌至最低值1.34%,希腊国外净债务恶化,超过了GDP的100%(尽管希腊仍属于A1评级的国家)。

虽然NFA分析数据很有用也很符合逻辑,但我们认为它在投资界并没有得到充分利用。2012年2月只有欧盟把NFA相关因素列入其“警告机制报告”中,该报告旨在检测“有危险的有害宏观经济不平衡警告信号。评级机构反应更慢,只有穆迪在2013年9月将NFA作为中等因素列入修订的主权债券评级方法中。很多人仍使用新兴市场国家(尽管很多国家数年前早已兴起)这种模糊表述,很少有从债权国和债务国的角度来思考问题(例如日本是个净债券国)。也许用这种根本性方法看待国际经济力量和国家资本流动压力,在未来会更受认可,特别是NFA概念的以为首席设计师在全球的影响力不断扩大。

2006年,国际货币基金组织的Philip R. Lane 和 Gian M Milesi-Ferretti发布了一份《国家外部财富》研究报告,该报告详细讨论了国家的国外资产估值问题。该报告的观点与我们的研究以及世界观不谋而合,并为我们的评估提供了进一步的数据。尽管他们的数据截止2007年,但我们一直在维护我们的国家NFA估算,并为估值变化而调整国家的经常账户收支。《国家外部财富》的作者之一Philip Lane现任爱尔兰中央银行行长,也是欧洲央行理事会成员之一。根据今天《金融时报》的报道,Lane是今年五月欧洲央行副行长的热门竞选人之一,即使落选也可以成为欧洲央行的首席经济学家,因为明年五月份首席经济学家Peter Praet将卸任。无需赘言,欧洲央行很民主,我们支持Lance,希望他能认真对待经济危机后出现持续的不平衡以及去杠杆不足的问题。

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