每日新闻更新 - 智利 The Daily Update - Chile

2017年12月,皮涅拉以绝大多数优势在第二轮投票中胜出,赢得智利总统大选,将于2018年3月就任。他在2010-2014年即曾担任智利总统,普遍认为他倾向于重视商业、鼓励经济发展的政策。考虑到智利经济发展一直处于萎靡状态(智利央行预计智利2017年经济增长仅为1.4%),皮涅拉的政策显然对选民很有吸引力。

然而,智利国会分裂,中右派智利前进联盟在参议院和国会下议院都不会占据绝对优势,因此可能不会直接进行政策变革。例如,可能会采用较温和的方式来改善财政规则,以此来解决财政赤字和高涨的债务水平(由于过于乐观的增长和铜价)。不管怎样,皮涅拉的当选将会提振经济信心,促进投资,并恢复铜价。

经济预测人士期望智利今年经济会反弹至3.2%(央行调查):增长因素包括铜价恢复以及投资增长。在智利的投资一直很疲软:铜是核心推动因素,占智利出口额的50&。去年铜供应中断,这是问题之一,Escondida等大型矿井在第1季度经历了长达44天的罢工,严重扰乱了智利的铜出口。这就是说,今年仍面临大量薪资谈判事宜。

智利国有铜企Codelco的债券是我们持有的智利债券之一。该企业在2017年表现出色,顺利渡过了2017年的薪资谈判,没有像其他企业那样受到生产中断的困扰。Codelco在2036年到期、票息为6.15%的美元债券收益率为4.2%,按照我们的评估模型来看,很具有吸引力,拥有约3.7档信用缓冲。

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