每日新闻更新 - 铜和信用 The Daily Update - Copper and credit

秘鲁南方铜业公司于2035年到期、票息为7.5%的债券是2017年表现最好的债券之一,实现了超过20点的价差,现在已经在最佳评级的基础上增加了2档信用缓冲。很显然,2017年的铜价非常可观,从2017年年初起,伦敦金属买卖所的铜价上涨了接近28%。

鉴于基本面仍有利于铜,我们认为智利国家铜业公司Codelco将创造更多价值:其2036年到期票息为6.15%的债券,按照我们的评级模型,交易价格比其评级低3.7档。不但从估值的角度来看,Codelco债券拥有吸引力,它也拥有更高的信用评级,穆迪、标普和惠誉分别对Codelco和南方铜业给予了A3/A+/A和Baa2/BBB/BBB+的评级。

我们认为有必要考虑久期和价差对整体投资组合风险的影响,支持在目前阶段创建高信用评级和久期较长的混合型投资组合。预期全球短期经济发展将得到改善,美国减税方案将起到促进作用:昨天世界国币基金组织分别对2018年和2019年的全球发展预期提高了0.2%至3.9%。由于税改政策,预期美国在2018年的经济发展将增长0.4%至2.7%,2019年增长0.6%至2.5%,税改方案对美国贸易伙伴的积极溢出效应是推动全球经济增长预期提高的关键因素之一。

我们认为美国经济增长率提高是短期的周期性上升。我们仍然认为通货膨胀将在中期内保持良性,因为像人口发展等长期趋势性问题将限制经济增长率的提高。另外,我们认为今年会有2-3次加息,美联储将继续缩紧债券购买,这将放缓目前的周期性上升。我们不认为现在是增加信用风险的时机,也不认为当下适合投资次级投资等级资产,因为价差已经大幅度缩紧。在我们看来,美联储越是收紧,硬着陆的风险就越大。在此种环境之下,高等级债券是理想的投资选择。

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