每日新闻更新 - 通货膨胀和人口统计数据 The Daily Update - Inflation and demographics

米尔顿·弗里德曼曾说过一句名言:“通货膨胀在任何地方都始终是一种货币现象。”限于篇幅,我们在这里不展开论述这一观点是否正确,但我们想反驳的是:“通货膨胀在任何地方都始终是一种人口现象。”

虽然我们都熟悉供求关系对产品价格的影响,但却不用同样的方式来看待人口的供求。很显然,一个经济体的失业率将受到人口增长率的严重影响,但令人奇怪的是,还没有足够多的学术研究来探讨人口增长与通货膨胀的关系。

去年,穆迪公布的一份报告研究了人口增长与通货膨胀的关系,采用了大量回归模型,运用了27个国家地区在1962-2015年间的横剖面数据。其中一个模型提供了强有力的统计证据:人口增长率下降会导致通货膨胀率大幅下跌。穆迪预测,人口增长率平均提高1%,就会造成通货膨胀率提高0.26%,而类似程度的人口增长率降低,会导致通货膨胀率下跌高达2%。

日本的工作年龄人口在1990年中期就开始减少,人口总数在2010年即达到峰值,穆迪的分析直观阐述了为什么日本在过去20年的通货膨胀率实际保持了零增长。从现在至2050年,日本工作年龄人口预计将减少30%以上,尽管日本央行已经做了很多徒劳的努力,在未来20年里日本可能继续面临严重的通货紧缩压力。

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