每日新闻更新 - 石油,阿曼 The Daily Update - Oil, Oman

由于OPEC石油减产协议的执行,布伦特原油价格每桶达到70美元,远高于预期经济增长率,当然这也是因为美元走弱所致。另外,市场正处于“现货溢价”结构之中,也就是说,近期到期合约的价格远高于远期到期合约。仅这一点就促使对冲基金和其他投机者在市场中进行多头操作。大体来看,购买近期到期合约,每月即有新合约到期,即使市场保持不变,购买方也能确保获得利润,当然这要在远期曲线正常化之前进行。

目前市场上布伦特原油三月份合约的价格是69.33美元,而12月合约的价格是65.72美元,每个月之间的收益曲线呈反转状态,达到了2014年以来即期溢价收益最高水平,这也是市场持续走高的重要因素。

从2017年中低值到年末,油价上涨了49%,这一强劲走高数据还透露了其他信息。有观点认为,石油天然气企业拉动了股价指数,荷兰皇家壳牌公司的股价在本周创下历史新高。我们持有的中东地区发行商的债券也表现非常好,甚至相对不稳定的美国债市在本周也表现不错,这是由于美国财政部破纪录的供应计划所致。

昨天,阿曼利用地区机构发行了65亿美元债券,分别为5年、10年和30年期。我们没有购买该债券,因为我们已经持有阿曼债券,而新发债券并没有提供更大的优势。今天上午,10年期债券提高了½点和30年期债券提高了1½点,这推高了我们已有债券收益,尽管程度有限,但也足以让我们无需购买该新发债券。

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