每日新闻更新 - 这是硬着陆?……中国 The Daily Update - What hard landing?....China

今天上午,中国发布了一系列经济数据:2017年第4季度GDP同比增长6.8%,2017年全年GDP同比增长6.9%,与李克强在上周宣布的预期值保持一致。2017年也是自2010年以来中国经济发展首次出现加速。12月的经济数据仍保持强劲,零售、知识产权和固定资产与预期基本保持一致,与11月份的强劲数据基本保持一致。经济发展表现出色,政策制定者就能继续推进去杠杆和去风险化,并进行供给侧改革。

金融风险控制措似乎发挥了作用。昨天国有资产监督管理委员会指出,2017年中国国有企业的债务资产比有所下降,整体下降了0.4%至66.3%。根据该报告,自从去年的整治以来,目前的98家国有企业(2012年国企数量为117家)中有40家已切实降低了其债务资产比,降幅达1%。另外,尽管北京进行了严苛的改革,2017年头11个月国有企业仍实现了两位数的利润增长率。很显然,去年是发展的一年。

人民币持续保持强劲,本周的离岸人民币收益比美元高约0.62%,今年增长了1.60%(截至发稿)。有报道称,德国央行正计划将人民币列入外汇储备,对此,西班牙银行评论称,这是考虑到人民币已被纳入特别提款权货币篮子,以及比利时国家银行和斯洛伐克国家银行最近也将人民币列入外汇储备(尽管数量不多),这无疑提振了对人民币的看法。我们仍认为人民币长期看涨,人民币将继续带来收益:目前年化收益率刚超过2%。

展望新的一年,随着中国的政策制定者推进高质量发展、摒弃快速发展的政策,我们预期中国今年的经济增长率将稳定在6.7%。我们不认为其基准利率会追随美联储加息而进行提高,尽管两者的利率差异正在缩小。预期公开市场利率将进行调整。随着金融压力的增加以及政府的限制性政策,中国的房地产市场可能会有所冷却。同时,去杠杆和金融风险调整仍将是今天的重要课题,地方政府将面临更大的压力来确保执政效率和竞争力。

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