每日新闻更新 — 美联储和 R-Star The Daily Update – The Fed and R-Star

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯(Williams)昨天发表讲话,我们认为他的评论需要做进一步的审视,在谈到美联储的中性利率时他是这样说的:

“此外,由于我们已经远离接近零的利率,因此有必要把注意力从货币政策立场相对于某些基准“中性”利率(通常被称为“r-star”)正常化的焦点上移开。......尽管如此,有时候r-star在关于美联储政策的评论中实际上得到了太多的关注。当利率远低于中性时,r-star当仁不让地成为导航的极星。但是,随着我们越来越接近中性的估量范围,貌似的一个亮点实际上是一片模糊。其实这反映了测量r-star的内在不确定性。更重要的是,r-star只是影响我们决策的一个因素,其他因素还有经济和劳动力市场指标、工资和价格通胀、全球发展,金融状况以及前景风险”。

威廉姆斯多年来一直是r-star的大力支持者!从广义上讲,中央银行利率制定框架依赖于已实现的即将导入经济数据(通常是回顾性的)与基于模型或理论结构(如r-star)的某种组合(往往更具趋于前瞻性)。

泰勒规则便一个例子,它将过去的数据作为输入(数据),但将其与理论结构(如潜在的GDP)进行比较,以便规定相对于估量的r-star的利率设定。但鲍威尔和威廉姆斯最近的评论表明,这些理论上的路标的不确定性越来越大。目前正在进行中的一个辩论是 — 这对目前的政策道路的选择意味着什么?到底是走鹰派道路还是要走鸽派道路?

在鸽派一面,不太确定中性点在哪里可能导致美联储的更加谨慎,因为他们担心潜在的过度紧缩。而在鹰派方面,较低程度对r-star的依赖可能导致美联储对即将导入数据的反应更为强烈,并且更有可能过度紧缩。这个争论仍在继续之中。

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