每日新闻更新 — 资产负债表、净外国资产和更大的图景 The Daily Update – Balance Sheets, Net Foreign Assets and The Bigger Picture

到目前为止,您可能已经看到,媒体通过引用最新的《国际货币基金组织关于财政监测的报告》对英国资产负债表进行了抨击。毋庸置疑,负数的2万亿英镑的净资产(3万亿资产减去5万亿的负债)对于那些可能承担未来税收负担的人们来说是一个巨大的标题和可怕的前景。对于许多政府(包括英国)来说,自全球金融危机以来,它们严重削弱了它们国家的长期财务状况不能说不是一种尴尬:将非流动性资产私有化以制造降低公共债务和承担公司债务的假象(英国从2007-08年起占 GDP 的189%)。尽管《卫报》突出报道了国际货币基金组织所关注的话题:“31个国家的公共债务和公有资产......英国就是这些最薄弱的公共财政国家中的一员”,以及“新自由主义是如何残酷对您进行掠夺的”,但国际货币基金组织的报告并不主要是针对英国政府或新自由主义者的热门话题。

该报告对31个国家进行了深度的研究,同时也对总共69个国家进行了较粗略的研究(除土地之外的资源、自然资源和养老金债务),主要强调了“为什么资产负债表对净资产的影响有可能比财政赤字增加的影响还要大”(我们正在留意在这一点上他们是否在引用我们的观点),以及“虽然赤字已经得到控制,但净(财务)价值仍然大大低于危机前的水平,留给用来应对未来风险的缓冲空间就较小。”当然,这份报告主要是针对公共净资产的,而我们的投资流程首先侧重于一个国家的净外国资产的总额 — 一开始的视角就比较宽阔,不忽视或有负债和债务主要由外国方持有的不同风险(虽然压力测试也有助于解释这些问题)。

这种“对公共财富(及其他问题)的综合看法并没有得到很好的理解,也没有得到足够的考量,只是得到了部分的应对”,不过,它们仍然提供了更具代表性的图景,因为“(仅仅)对债务的关注会错过对大量的政府活动的关注,可能成为虚幻财政行为的牺牲品。 ”例如,在对31个国家进行的取样调查中,“债务证券和贷款是标准财政分析的主要股票指标,价值占 GDP 的95%”,但是,“业已存在的面向公务员的养老金义务体现了源源不断的根据合同要求支付的款项,但(这项指标)却很少出现在标准分析的报告中;(实际上)它们占这些国家 GDP 的46%。”该报告还涵盖了估算真实财政风险的一系列关键方面以及大量富有洞察力的图表,以及提醒读者有以下重点的国家案例研究:日本不仅拥有均衡的净资产(尽管从占 GDP 的百分比的角度来看拥有最高的政府债务),该国的流动资产也占有 GDP 的最大比例 — 62%,而平均值则为16%。

国际货币基金组织的报告得出的结论是:“通过提供超越债务和赤字的更广泛的财政状况来分析公共财富可以带来一系列好处......这一点非常重要,因为资产负债表更加强大的政府面临的融资成本就较低,在应对经济衰退时就可以处于更有利的位置。”我们当然同意这种说法,但倾向于用“总计”和“国家”取代“公共”和“政府”这两个用词;同时我们也强调,资产负债表较强的国家(即净外国资产)在“应对经受衰退时处于更为有利的位置”。但有时候由于报告所强调的很大一部分内容都被忽视了,从基本面来看,有时它们的借贷成本(也就是我们的收益率)也许偏高了。我们坚持积极对其评估的正是这些风险和机遇。

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